If I’d invested £1,000 in Moonpig shares 2 years ago, here’s what I’d have now!

Investors in Moonpig Shares (LSE:MOON) are squealing with excitement after the online greeting card retailer went public on 2 February 2021. The share price rose 25% in just one hour of market opening, from a float price of £3.50 to £4.40.

For now, shareholders are likely to be dismayed to see Moonpig’s share price crash over the past two years.

Pork in the poke

If I bought £1,000 worth of Moonpig shares at launch I would have around 280 shares.

Today, the stock would be worth £355, which represents a capital loss of 64.5%.

Despite being profitable, with free cash flow of £45.2m by 2022, Moonpig has never paid a dividend. That means I have nothing to show for my investment except for heavily depreciated stocks.

Fortunately, I have never been a shareholder of Moonpig. But since the company is trading close to 52 weeks, is currently profitable, and has good brand recognition, should I buy it?

Make pig ears…

Moonpig is having a tough 2022.

First, many online businesses, including Moonpig, when the Covid shutdowns ended, allowed people to shop more in High Street stores.

Then, in the second half of 2022, Royal Mail opened 18 days of attack, making it more difficult to send last-minute greeting cards for special occasions.

But what could the future hold for Moonpig?

Go the full hog

To drive sales to online stores, Moonpig has built a data infrastructure that reminds 79m customers every year about important dates – such as birthdays and anniversaries.

The reminder goes out to people who have previously used Moonpig to send items to their loved ones on special dates. In FY22, the company delivered 57m personalized cards, gifts and bouquets with 40m unique orders. Meanwhile, about 90% of the revenue in that financial year came from existing buyers.

These numbers suggest that Moonpig reminders have a very good conversion rate.

Sizzling statistics

I like that Moonpig has amassed a large mailing list of customers, along with dates that are likely to become repeat buyers.

But what is financial? Below, I compare some key financial ratios for Moonpig with Etsy and Card Factory.

While Moonpig and Etsy are specialty online retailers specializing in personalized gifts and cards, Card Factory is primarily a brick-and-mortar retailer that offers cards, gifts, and party supplies through physical stores.

Company	Price-to-earnings	Price-to-sales	Net debt-to-assets
Moonpig	21	1.3	39%
Etsy	Not profitable	5.7	52%
Card Factory	13	0.8	14%

Moonpig is in the spotlight when it comes to Etsy’s finances. But Card Factory has the last laugh, with a lower share price than Moongpig. Surprisingly, Moonpig is much more than Card Factory, despite not having a physical store.

Currently, Moonpig is the sixth most shorted stock by a large money manager in the London Stock Exchangeaccording to data from the Financial Conduct Authority.

Which shows that, for all the company’s talk about being “technology platform at the heart“, big investors think it’s all hogwash.

I wouldn’t buy Moonpig stock right now. I wouldn’t buy from Etsy or Card Factory, either. Due to the cost of living crisis, I see bleak times ahead for retailers of non-essential items like greeting cards, flowers, and party balloons.