Author: eritvnews

We are not long now from the first part of the campaign to elect the next president of the United States. At this stage this is all about the primaries. Who shall be the flag carriers for the Democrats and the Republicans? For more than a quarter of a century, the first State with a Primary has been New Hampshire which is at the North Eastern extreme of the country. It is sparsely populated and a very costly state in which to campaign This is not a state where the campaign can rely on scheduled flights and a lot of…

This market from Ladbrokes on whether our last but one First Lord of the Treasury will win a seat at the next election and I understand why No is such the overwhelming favourite. Boris Johnson is earning serious money and may not want to give that up or have to declare it, nor does leading the Tories in opposition seem appealing to somebody as famously lazy and distracted as Boris Johnson. However I get the he and his allies think his removal was a coup d’état and that he has still unfinished business as Prime Minister, he likes to cosplay…

The Republican Party has become a cult of personality. Legal experts, mental health professionals, and political pundits are sounding the alarm of the threat Donald Trump poses to America’s democratic way of life. That danger is real. It’s not hyperbole or political manipulation. At it’s core, fascism is clever and evil and for the first time in American history a man committed to fascist ideology made it to the presidency once, and is threatening to do it again. American democracy survived Trump’s first term because sane, patriotic members of his administration blocked the implementation of his most dangerous, anti-constitutional policies.…

Today’s Sunday Times has this interesting analogy from Team Sunak about the next general election At Kerridge’s restaurant last Tuesday, a member of Rishi Sunak’s team, who is the victim of a recent break-up, was seeking solace in the Tories’ now troubled relationship with the electorate. “The Conservative party has misbehaved and has been put in the spare room,” he suggested. “We haven’t yet been kicked out of the house completely.”The reason for his hope was the continuing evidence in the polls that 20 per cent of people have yet to make up their minds who they plan to vote…

There are either 12 or perhaps fewer months to the General Election, and the Labour lead in the polls seems solidly in the mid to high teens. The recent Autumn Statement seems to be having no real effect on that lead. Is it possible for the Tories to close that gap? One possibility mooted is that Reform Party (REFUK) voters will switch to the Conservatives when that GE focuses minds. It does seem as if REFUKs predecessor The Brexit Party voters did at GE 2019, and the Brexit Party did stood aside in Conservative seats, so an area worth exploring.…

Demicrats better unite and vote for their party or lose our demicracy. Stop whining and focusing on any other issue but keeping Trump or any member of the corrupted Republican party from the Oval Office. There is no other candidate that can win Donald Trump. President Biden is vetted. He is under an unprecedented attack by a dangerous narcisstist who plans to be president until he dies by in validating the results of any election he loses. The assault on President Biden by Trump, MAGA members of Congress, and anarchists and traitors like Steve Bannon surpasses prior opposition movements in…

Ladbrokes have this market on whether a vote of no confidence will be triggered in Rishi Sunak this year. For one to be triggered 15% of Tory MPs need to send a letter to the chairman of the 1922 committee requesting such a vote. I cannot see a trigger event or events during the rest of the year that will see that threshold breached. So far in 2023 we’ve seen a plethora of record breaking by election defeats for Sunak, we’ve seen him sack Suella Braverman, damaging evidence at the Covid-19 inquiry, and if they didn’t trigger the threshold then…

Next year’s White House Race will be the sixth to be covered since PB was founded in 2004. But there will be one big difference and that is the order in which states hold their primaries. We are all used to the Iowa caucuses being the first State to divide with the first proper primary being in New Hampshire. This time the Democratic party have been seeking to make the elections take place in it different order although the Republicans appear to be following what we have known in the in the past. So the GOP will kick iff with…

Like many I thought Sunak would hold the election in October/November 2024 but I am now leaning towards an election held next May, there’s a few advantages for holding it then. Using the budget as tax cutting launchpad for the election campaign.Avoids having an election taking place with the energy prices dominating the agenda during the colder months. It isn’t difficult to imagine OFGEM increasing the price cap next October.An autumn election would see Labour highlighting the second anniversaries of the Trussterfuck which would dominate the campaign and remind the electorate of why their mortgages are quite so high.If the…

Smarkets A lot politically is resting on today’s budget This is almost certainly the last budget before the general election and Hunt needs to get some good headlines on the way his proposals will impact on voters. This is always a tough one and LAB will be working hard this afternoon to find the negative messages. Remember the “Dementia Tax” not long ago. Just getting some LAB leads down to single figures would be a big boost for the Tories. The problem with budgets is that the downside headlines tend to make the front pages a day or so later.…