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After a newsworthy decline of around 7%, the FTSE 100 seems to have stabilized. However, I don’t rule out worse performance. I think a stock market crash in 2023 is a real possibility. As of now, the inflation rate in the UK is 10.1%. To reach the 2% target, the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates. Current bank rate is 4%. It has not been that high since 2008. The rise is very fast and economic growth stalls.
It’s not just the BoE. Central banks around the world are juggling rates, inflation, and growth. The big concern in the coming months is that the economy could go into recession. The shock reverberating through the banking sector after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank increased the risk.
Chances of a stock market crash
Instead of breaking into a cold sweat at the thought of a stock market crash, I can see it as an opportunity. There are a few UK stocks that I really like. However, they are not cheap. If the market starts to fall then it should drag the price down. As long as their business is relatively unaffected, I can buy shares in the company cheaply.
For example, YouGov (LSE: YOU) makes money by running polls and surveys to answer questions that businesses pay to answer. It has increased its profits by an average of 16% per year. Free cash flow has increased every year. And shareholders, like me, should be happy with the 14.4% return on equity, and 29% dividend growth.
However, YouGov shares trade at 23 times earnings. That’s high. The dividend yield is somewhere around 1%, which is low. Although as a shareholder, I am not interested in seeing this share price go down, if possible, the yield will increase. I would be tempted to increase my long position on YouGov at a lower price.
Potential stock bargains
Fevertree drink it’s a lot of companies I like to think. The maker of premium mixers for alcoholic beverages has impressive dividend growth, but again the dividend yield on the stock is expected to be around 1.5% next year. It trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 53. That’s surprisingly high.
This is a low value stock. Add in the constant contractions at the operating margin and I’m not interested. However, if the stock market crash wipes out the share price cut, and assuming the underlying business looks okay, I’d be keen to add to my Stocks and Shares ISA.
Experience own a hard-to-replicate database of consumer and business credit information that banks and lenders pay to access. Experian’s revenue has grown by an average of 8% annually over the past five years. Its operating margin averaged an impressive 23% in the same time frame. But again, the yield is low and the P/E ratio is high. A lower price would justify everything. If the business looks healthy, I will consider adding to the position in Experian that I stood in April 2020, after the last stock market crash. So if the same thing happens again, I’ll look for a deal instead of panicking.
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