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Smarkets has a market on who will be the next cabinet minister and as expected Zahawi is a strong favourite. He is currently rated as a 90% chance.
The flip side of this is that you can get about 4/1 on Zahami surviving and another cabinet minister being out next.
What we know about Sunak is that he is not very strong when it comes to throwing team members and the fact that he hasn’t done it already shows that in this case it won’t happen. Despite the prepared report against the former chancellor I can still see it hanging there.
One thing that is certain is that the former Chancellor and YouGov founder will not be leaving of his own free will. If he is going to stop being in the cabinet, then Sunak has to act and I can’t see him doing what we know about how he deals with other ministers.
The biggest risk for Nadhim that I see is that Sunak is ousted and a new prime minister comes in. He wouldn’t have Nadin for long.
Mike Smithson
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