Yiaga lists inducements, low turnout as factors that may affect Saturday’s governorship polls

Look after Africapro-democracy organization, has highlighted factors that can affect the success of the gubernatorial election that will be held on March 18.

The non-profit organization said on Friday in a pre-election observation statement that the inducement of voters by politicians, low turnout and ethnic divisions, among others, are factors that can shape the upcoming elections in the 26 states of Nigeria.

The think tank also said there has been some improvement in the logistical deficit that marred the February 25 presidential election but noted the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) may need to improve its performance in many areas.

Read the full report below.

Dear friends,

On March 18, 2023, Nigerians will once again go to the polls to elect Governors in the Twenty-eight (28) States and Members of Parliament for the 993 state constituencies. Of course, this is a high stakes election. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was given another chance to overcome logistical, administrative and technological shortcomings during the February 25 Presidential and National Assembly elections. How the electoral commission manages the election will have serious implications for rebuilding public confidence and trust in the electoral process. In addition, the election will test the resilience of citizens to participate in the electoral process against the backdrop of hardships brought about by the naira shortage, fuel crisis and unmet expectations of election management.

As observed by Yiaga Africa during the Presidential and National Assembly Elections on February 25, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) device is working optimally in the majority of polling units. Yiaga Afrika also highlighted cases where voters bypassed accreditation with BVAS and voted in some polling units. The late start of polls, lack of election materials and failure to conduct elections in some polling units resulted in voter disenfranchisement. Violations and non-compliance with these election guidelines require a change in behavior from election officials, voters and political stakeholders including sanctions to prevent future incidents.

Yiaga Afrika noted the corrective action taken by INEC to sanction the staff. After the February 25 election, INEC took action against RECs in Anambra, Sokoto and Abia states for disrupting election preparations and failing to implement the commission’s guidelines. The suspension of the Sokoto State Electoral Commissioner and the redeployment of Electoral Officers in Rivers state are confidence-building measures, but not enough to act as a deterrent. INEC must extend punitive measures to RECs and other staff who falsify election results and allegedly sabotage the distribution of election materials by either centralizing the distribution of election materials and failing to fulfill contractual obligations for transporters employed by INEC to deliver election materials and personnel to the polls. Units. Yiaga Africa also hopes glitches with the INEC Results Viewing (IReV) Portal have been resolved to allow smooth electronic transmission of results on election day.

For the March 18 Governorship election, Yiaga Africa conducted a comprehensive and systematic observation of the election which included the distribution of Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) to observe the governorship election in Benue, Delta and Kano States. Yiaga Africa will also send stationary and roving observers to observe and report on election day proceedings in 25 other countries. Furthermore, at the end of the polls, Yiaga Afrika will deploy observers to all Local Government Areas (LGAs) and State Collection Centers in all states where elections will be held to observe and report on the Governor’s result collection process.

This briefing is the first of three press conferences planned to be held by Yiaga Africa
for the March 18 election.

Summary of Key Findings from Yiaga Africa’s Pre-Election Observations

1. Dissemination of Election Materials: Yiaga Africa documented the distribution of election materials throughout the United States with at least 26 States confirming the distribution of sensitive and non-sensitive materials to Local Government Areas. While this is a positive sign, Yiaga Africa asked the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to ensure proper coordination and communication with transport companies/unions that provide logistical support to ensure the early deployment of materials and personnel to polling units on election day. This will reverse the early-to-late trend of polls during Nigeria’s elections.

2. Status of BVAS: Yiaga Africa received reports from all countries that the Commission reconfigured a substantial number of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System ahead of Friday’s polls. Some states like Oyo reported the receipt of additional 406 BVAS as reserves. As of March 15, 2023, Yiaga Afrika received a report from Rivers stating that 22 BVAS devices were missing and 3 BVAS were damaged.

3. Case of Voter Persuasion: While efforts to mobilize citizens increased before the elections, Yiaga Africa received reports of voter stimulation through the distribution of gifts and transfers (money) by political actors. Specifically, Yiaga Afrika received reports of distribution of money and food by APC supporters in Mbakyaa Mbachougul, Tarka LGA, Benue State. APC and PDP representatives were seen collecting bank account details of voters in Damaturu and Potiskum LGAs in Yobe State, to make wire transfers ahead of the election. From Akwa Ibom, Yiaga Afrika also received reports that PDP youths in
Ibeno LGA was given N1,000,000 to endorse candidates on Sunday, March 12, 2023.

4. Safety Climate: Africa’s Yiaga seems to have calmed down since the February 25 election. However, the organization received disturbing reports of the proliferation of small arms and light weapons in Abua-Odual, Andoni, Akuku Toru, Asari Toru, Eleme, Gokana, Khana and Tai LGAs in Rivers State. The House of Assembly candidate for Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni State constituency has been allegedly kidnapped in Rivers State. The incident created a tense atmosphere ahead of the elections in the country.

5. Rising ethnic and religious tensions: Yiaga Afrika is concerned about the divisive campaign rhetoric that has created campaigns in several countries after the February 25 election. Social media was flooded with hate speech and attacks on ethnic groups during the election. Politicians seem to be exploiting these fault lines for electoral mobilization. Yiaga Afrika also received reports of ongoing clashes between gardeners and farmers in Ucha Gbeji, Vaase and Boiko Ayti communities in Ukum LGA and Mkomon, Moon, Mbaikyor and Liev1 communities in Kwande LGA, in Benue State. Africa is very deep
concerned with this development because it has created an atmosphere of fear and anxiety in some states like Lagos.

6. Lasting Impact of Naira Scarcity: Yiaga Africa is concerned that the Commission could face more logistical challenges if the cash shortage is not addressed.

7. Low Voter Turnout Projection: Yiaga Africa is worried that the low turnout for the presidential election will be repeated for the gubernatorial election. While INEC and others continue to encourage voters to come out to the polls, citizens’ confidence in the Commission, poor voter education coupled with the lingering impact of the Naira shortage could dampen voter turnout.

Recommendation

1. INEC must ensure that the shortcomings observed in the previous elections have been properly addressed before the Governorship election. INEC must ensure proper and consistent communication with transport unions and companies that provide logistical support to ensure early election day deployment. This also includes the need to ensure that only trained ad-hoc officials are deployed on election day. A contingency plan should be implemented in the event that the transport union/company backs out or fails in its contractual obligations to distribute election materials and personnel.
2. INEC Must ensure proper and timely communication with stakeholders in the election day process, challenges encountered and immediate plans to address these challenges to inspire confidence of the people in the process.
3. Yiaga Africa called on the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Electoral Security (ICCES) to ensure that the security personnel deployed adhere to the code of conduct on election security. These include professionalism in their conduct, the arrest of election violators and respect for the rights of citizens, the media, and observers, including the right to freedom of movement on Election Day for accredited observers and media practitioners.
4. Yiaga Africa calls on Political Parties, candidates and their supporters to campaign peacefully before the Elections and on Election Day and not buy votes and compromise the secrecy of ballots.
5. Yiaga Africa encourages voters to resist attempts to buy their votes, to count and vote according to their choice on Saturday, March 18.

Watch the 2023 Governor Election Vote Observation

On March 18, 2023, Yiaga Africa will deploy 1,547 trained and accredited stationary and mobile observers to observe the Governorship elections in 28 countries. Yiaga Africa will use the Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT) methodology to observe the governorship elections in Benue, Delta and Kano states. This will involve deploying 900 stationary observers to a randomly selected sample of 300 polling units for each country, Yiaga Africa will also deploy 97 roving observers in the three countries. In addition, Yiaga Africa will deploy 517 stationary observers and 33 roving observers in the other 25 days where the gubernatorial election will be held, to observe and report on the entire election day process from the setup of the polling unit, accreditation, voting, announcement and posting. from the official results and will send periodic reports to the National Data Center Watching the Vote. At the end of the polls, Yiaga Africa observers will deploy to all LGAs and state result collection centers to observe and report on the result collection process. This deployment will allow Yiaga Africa to provide the most timely and accurate information on the governorship elections in these countries.

Using PVT, Yiaga Afrika will also provide an independent projection of voter turnout in Benue, Delta and Kano States, and will be able to project the share of votes that each party should receive in some arrows-approximate. If the official result is within the range that Yiaga Afrika estimates, then the public, political parties and candidates should be sure of the ballot in the polling unit.

---

READ ALSO: #NigeriaDecides2023: African Yiaga tasks INEC on transparency

---

Only INEC, however, has the legal mandate to announce election results. As soon as INEC announces the official results, Yiaga Africa will follow the result verification press conference to share a statement on the accuracy of the election results.

Using information communication technology and statistical principles, PVT is the gold standard for citizen election observation and has been used throughout Africa and the world. Yiaga Africa has also used this methodology in the 2023 presidential election and eleven (12) gubernatorial elections in Nigeria.

Yiaga Africa reaffirms its commitment to objective, non-partisan and credible election observation. The Watching Thae Vote is “Driven by Data – For All Nigerians – No One!”
Thank you and God bless Nigerians!

Ezenwa Nwagwu
For Chairman, Watch Working Group Vote
Look after Africa