Yea, though I walk through the Tees Valley of the shadow of Reform – politicalbetting.com

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Looking at the data tables I’d shade this tied poll slightly blue. Lab support draws a lot from people who didn’t vote in 2021, and a Con lead emerges if you restrict it to those certain to vote. Houchen running ahead of the Con brand but still a big swing since 2021. https://t.co/syQpARSuhk

— Lewis Baston (@lewis_baston) April 20, 2024

The lack of a candidate from Reform UK could make a difference in a close election.

Tees Valley Mayoral Election VI, Reform UK Likely Voters*

Ben Houchen, Conservative 44%
Chris McEwan, Labour 6%
Simon Thornley, Liberal Democrat 5%
Don’t Know 45%

*Note: Small subsample. pic.twitter.com/yLxwvY2rHr

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) April 20, 2024

Redfield & WIlton have published a plethora of polling on the Tees Valley Mayoral polling and I feel a little bit shocked by this polling as my expectation was that the scandal around Lord Houchen would doom him but I share Lewis Baston’s take on the polling.

One thing to look after the election is where the Reform do not stand where do their voters go? As Redfield & Wilton rightly point out it is rather silly to base assumptions on small subsamples.

The betting on this election is near as dammit a dead heat and I cannot see any value in this market.

TSE

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