There is no sign that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow will rein in President Vladimir Putin in the war in Ukraine, even as it again highlights a lopsided relationship where Russia is clearly the junior partner, analysts say.
Xi held two days of talks this week in Moscow, his first visit since Putin launched a war against Ukraine in February last year.
Also read: China’s Xi to Russia on first visit since Ukraine invasion
Every aspect of body language was examined to try to ascertain the intentions of the two leaders.
Xi, who has been described as planning to end the conflict, presented himself as a mediator concerned with maintaining stability.
But Putin can only be felt by Xi’s expressions of support and the symbolism of his direct visit, even as Russia finds itself increasingly dependent on China as Moscow becomes more isolated from the West.
The visit comes after the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin, the biggest legal challenge facing the Russian leader.
“Xi’s visit has rattled Putin, especially after the Hague arrest warrant,” said Liana Fix, fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
China’s peace plan is “very clear to Russia”, he said, adding that Beijing is ready to give “time to Moscow to end the war”, even with implicit support rather than pro-active support.
“Of course, Putin will want more – especially on the gas deal with China – but the optics of the visit are so important to him that he can increase Russia’s dependence on China,” he said.
‘Gift for Putin’
The visit was “perceived by the non-Western world as a counterweight to the decision” of the ICC, said Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
It is “as if the Chinese leader has broken the curse on Putin” after this warrant was issued, he said.
Sam Greene, director of democratic resilience at the CEPA think tank in Washington, described the visit as a “gift” for Putin – unless there is a new twist like a phone conversation between Xi and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, although nothing has been announced.
It’s “essentially permission from Beijing to keep fighting. However, it’s just Xi’s gift to Putin”, Greene wrote on Twitter.
China did not impose Western sanctions on Moscow, but increased its imports of hydrocarbons from Russia and maintained its economic interests in Russia during the invasion.
Xi’s recent peace proposals have sparked skepticism in the West, particularly in the United States.
For Antoine Bondaz, a Chinese foreign policy specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), “what is at stake now for China in the war in Ukraine is not the future of Ukraine… It is the Sino-American rivalry and the desire to destroy Western countries”.
Xi’s trip to Moscow represented “anything but distance” by China from Russia, he added.
‘marriage of convenience’
While Xi and Putin sought to emphasize friendship and respect in their meetings – addressing each other as “dear” – China is the senior partner.
It has a smaller population and economy than its neighbors, where the sparsely populated region of eastern Russia remains wary of the growing Chinese cities on the other side of the Amur river that forms part of its border.
Xi’s support is crucial for Putin as he insists that only the West opposes the invasion of Ukraine, and not the international community as a whole.
Moscow is increasingly valuing energy exports to China and is reluctant to import Chinese weapons for war, a move Beijing has so far halted.
“While Xi and Putin have many interests in common, it seems clear that this is not an equal partnership,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Bondaz said he “didn’t think for a second” that China would send weapons en masse to Russia, as Beijing would face Western sanctions and damage its reputation among its allies.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday dismissed China’s diplomacy with Russia as a “marriage of comfort”, saying Beijing had not provided military aid to Moscow’s “junior partner” for the war in Ukraine.
Tatiana Jean, director of the Russia Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), said that “Putin came out of this visit strengthened in the short term but more dependent on China in the long term”.
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