Days after Vladimir Putin was hit with an international warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, Xi Jinping’s first state visit to Moscow in four years is a demonstration of the Chinese leader’s commitment to the Russian president – but is also set to show a red line on what. Last year’s couple was dubbed “no limit partnership”.
Putin, who defiantly traveled to occupied Ukrainian territory at the weekend after the warrant of the International Criminal Court, will hope that Xi’s three-day visit, which began on Monday, will give legitimacy to the invasion of Ukraine and China can promise material support to help. the military against it.
But there are signs that Xi will remain guarded about the potential cost of befriending the Russian leader, particularly in Europe as Beijing tries to boost trade after its zero-Covid policy damaged the economy last year. And despite warnings from the US that China is considering sending weapons to Russia, there is still little evidence of a significant flow of weapons between the two countries.
After his trip to Moscow, Xi may call Putin’s nemesis, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to one person familiar with the matter. It will be Xi’s first direct contact with Zelenskyy since the full-scale invasion and a sign of the strain China sees on its alliance with Russia, as Beijing seeks to assert its credentials as a peace candidate.
“I think they’re going to call,” said Yu Jie, a senior researcher in China at the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House. “China simply cannot compete with the US and Europe.”
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said Putin and Xi “will definitely” discuss China’s peace plan during informal talks on Monday and formal negotiations on Tuesday.
Putin plans to give Xi “a full explanation so that President Xi can see the current moment from the Russian side from the horse’s mouth,” Peskov told reporters in apparent reference to the leaders’ last meeting in September, when China acknowledged the same. have differences regarding the Ukraine conflict. At the time, Putin told Xi that “we understand your questions and concerns about this” and promised to “explain our position.”
Beijing’s close relationship with Moscow despite the war, which analysts call “pro-Russian neutrality”, undermines its standing in Europe. While China’s position paper last month on a potential settlement in Ukraine was met with skepticism in the west, it is a way for Beijing to reposition itself and see how the conflict develops, analysts said.
The challenge for Xi is to strike a balance between these concerns and the benefits of closer ties with Moscow amid tensions with the US and its allies.
“The Ukraine war has exacerbated great power rivalry and made the geopolitical fault lines between the US and China clearer, and in response China and Russia are now actually aligning,” said Alexander Korolev, an expert on China-Russia relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.
“China will need Russia for the upcoming confrontation with the US, which is becoming very real,” he said, pointing to closer military ties between the two countries and Beijing’s need to prepare alternative energy supply routes in case of sea oil imports from the Middle East. blocked in any clash with the US over Taiwan.
As Europe and the US have imposed harsh sanctions on Russia, China’s trade with its neighbor has soared over the past year, jumping 34.3 percent to a record Rmb1.28tn ($186bn), according to Chinese state-controlled media. This year, natural gas imports from Russia are expected to increase three times.
Trade with Beijing has given Russia’s economic lifeline, making up for some of its lost oil sales to the US and Europe and providing replacements for key western-made components such as microchips, 5G equipment and industrial machinery.
“[The Chinese] knowing that this is a very useful moment to make Russia deeper in its pockets. They have a tremendous impact,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Part of Putin’s war as part of a wider conflict with the west has brought the two countries closer together. Russia is a useful partner in China’s efforts to counter U.S. “hegemony,” analysts say. Russia’s powerful security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev gave his full support for Beijing’s stance on Taiwan when he met with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi last month.
Ahead of the trip, Chinese and Russian leaders issued long statements extolling their relationship. Xi said China had been “impartial” in what he called the “Ukraine crisis”, while attacking “acts of hegemony, domination and bullying”, in a thin reference to the west. Putin in an article in China’s People’s Daily praised Xi as a “good old friend” and said he respected Beijing’s “balanced stance on events in Ukraine”.
“For Russia, the restrictions that existed before have disappeared,” Gabuev said. “Putin is very interested in this war, and the partnership makes him an economic line, a critical component of the military machine, and China is a tool to push back against the US – because the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Beijing and Moscow’s deepening relationship led US secretary of state Antony Blinken to warn at the end of the month that any material Chinese support for Russia’s military will have “serious consequences” for relations with the US.
China has responded that the west has fueled the conflict by selling arms to Ukraine. “China is neither the cause nor the catalyst of the Ukraine crisis, nor has it provided weapons to any side in the conflict,” Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang said this month.
But while relations with Russia remain important, China has limited opportunities if it wants to stabilize relations with its larger trading partners in the west.
Xi will have the opportunity to meet US president Joe Biden at two summits this year, but with US elections next year, the possibility of further rapprochement with Washington will be limited. And while several European leaders including French president Emmanuel Macron plan to visit China this year, the success of the meeting will be colored by Xi’s backing of Russia in Ukraine.
Therefore, Beijing’s efforts to paint itself as an important mediator, analysts say. China this month enjoyed a rare success in conflict resolution when it struck a deal to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Resolving the Ukraine conflict will be more difficult, analysts say. China’s position paper last month failed to condemn Russia’s invasion and contained thinly veiled criticism of the West and NATO.
China “does not have the status of an impartial mediator in the Ukraine conflict because of the great support of Russia”, said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “For China to help, it should not suggest what Kyiv can compromise, but find a way to save Moscow from backing down.”
The contact between Xi and Zelenskyy will show concessions from China to western skepticism. But any contact is likely to be virtual rather than in person and the outcome uncertain, analysts say, as Xi seeks to balance China’s desire to play the peace game against giving ground to the US.
Beijing views the Ukraine conflict as a proxy struggle pitting Russia against NATO and the US and “Zelenskyy has no decision-making power”, said one expert at a Chinese think-tank in Beijing.
“All of them [Zelenskyy] all you can do is send a message to Joe Biden. President Xi does not need to approve Zelenskyy by meeting him. China respects Ukraine’s interests. But this is different from the priorities of US interests.
Additional reporting by Sun Yu in Beijing, Kathrin Hille in Taipei and Edward White in Seoul