[ad_1]
New long-range missiles, attack drones and tanks and other armored vehicles that President Volodymyr Zelensky has secured from allies in recent days will fulfill many, but not all, requests for weapons that Ukraine says are needed for a counterattack against Russia.
Military analysts believe at least some of the latest tranches of Western weapons will be sent to the front lines to cut Russian supply routes and attack artillery systems and command centers in southern and eastern Ukraine. Others may be sent later, including in the autumn or beyond, to help Mr. Zelensky plan for future operations if the war drags on.
But the robust package – announced as Mr Zelensky visited four European capitals over the past three days – may signal that Western officials now believe Ukraine can recapture significant territory in a counteroffensive, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a former Danish army intelligence officer.
“We would not have committed this amount of weapons to Ukraine at this time, if we thought it would be impossible to succeed,” said Mr. Kirkegaard, who is now a senior member of Germany’s Marshall Fund research group. in Brussels.
Some Western officials hope that if the Ukrainians gain more territory, they will have more leverage in peace negotiations.
Just last week, Mr. Zelensky had warned that an anticipated counteroffensive against Russia that would begin this spring or early summer could be delayed unless Kyiv quickly received more weapons.
European allies responded within hours.
Perhaps the most important commitment came from Germany, which on Saturday announced – before Mr Zelensky landed in Berlin – that it would send Ukraine 30 additional Leopard tanks and 20 armored fighting vehicles, 16 air defense systems, more than 200 drones and slews. other weapons and ammunition. French and Italian leaders also made vague promises to deliver light tanks, ammunition and air defense systems.
The additional Leopard combat vehicles and infantry that Germany is sending as part of a package worth 2.7 billion euros, or nearly $3 billion, will be most useful in Ukraine’s southern steppe, where Russian-held territory, Mr. Kirkegaard said, is particularly relevant. “for tank warfare or maneuver.”
But Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, noted that it was unclear whether all of the newly promised German tanks would arrive. (Berlin has sent 18 Leopard tanks to Ukraine.)
But, he said, the commitment “helped give confidence to Ukraine” as military planners prepared for a drawn-out war.
As of early March, only 31 percent of tanks and 76 percent of other armored fighting vehicles had been sent to Ukraine for the upcoming counterattack, according to a recently leaked U.S. military estimate, although American officials said more had been sent in the months since. The Biden administration also promised to send 31 American-made Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but that won’t arrive until fall at the earliest.
The promised new air defense system could help ease American worries that Ukraine won’t have enough to protect itself when a counterattack is imminent. Four of Germany’s newly promised 16 air defense systems are considered the most advanced on the market.
The newly-promised long-range Storm Shadow missile, which Britain pledged on Thursday, helps answer a long-standing demand from Ukraine. The United States has so far refused to send American long-range missiles to Ukraine, in part to avoid escalating the war with weapons that Ukraine could use to reach Russian territory.
Mr Kirkegaard said the long-range drones that Britain pledged on Monday were a particular threat to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet in the Crimean port of Sevastopol and other sites in and near Crimea, including the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects occupied Crimea to Russia. .
Crimea has become a key staging ground for Russia’s operations in the captured region of southern Ukraine.
[ad_2]
Source link