With Local Elections in Much of the U.K., Here’s What’s at Stake

Britain will vote on Thursday in local elections that will be a test of the popularity of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has stabilized British politics but whose government remains unpopular in the face of rising inflation, sluggish economic growth and labor unrest.

This vote will not affect the national Parliament that gave Mr. Sunak power: Members of Parliament face the public every five years or so in general elections. The date is flexible but not expected until next year.

But Thursday’s vote could provide an important clue as to whether Mr Sunak, whose Conservative Party trailed the opposition Labor Party in opinion polls, can turn things around.

At stake are seats for about 8,000 representatives at the lower levels of government: municipalities that control services like waste collection and construction that allow and raise taxes, within strict limits, on residential properties.

It is not an infallible guide to national sentiment. Voter turnout will be lower than in a general election and parish issues like planned housing developments could affect some races.

Still, this is probably the biggest public vote between now and the next general election, and it’s taking place in many areas that could determine the next UK government, with national issues often prominent in campaigns.

How is the state of the national game?

The latest survey shows Mr Sunak cutting into the Labor leader, although it remains in the double digits. So he hopes to secure a fifth consecutive general election victory for the Conservatives.

Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, needs a good result to keep his hopes of becoming the next prime minister alive. Despite moving the party close to power, it failed to attract voters.

Local elections will show how Labor’s poll leader and Mr Sunak’s poll progress translates into real votes.

Who voted and where?

Elections on Thursday took place in much – but not all – of the UK. Scotland and Wales do not vote, and Northern Ireland has local elections on May 18.

Up for grabs are seats for representatives in 230 municipalities. The last time this seat was contested was in 2019, when Parliament was deadlocked due to Brexit and the two main parties were almost equally unpopular. Many large cities are selected (except London) but so are rural areas.

Both main parties hold most of these seats, but the Conservatives have the most to defend – around 3,500 – and polls show they will lose a lot.

How much is the main question: The party has traditionally sought massage expectations. Greg Hands, the chairman of the Conservatives, has said that the party could lose 1000 seats – a high number that some analysts think is inflated in an attempt to portray the lower losses as a triumph.

What are the results to watch?

Some of the most watched votes will be in the red walled areas of the north of England and the Midlands. These deindustrialized areas used to be the heartland of the Labor Party. Mr Sunak’s successor but one, Boris Johnson, fought a pro-Brexit general election campaign at the end of 2019 which won a majority for the Conservatives.

With reduced support for the Conservatives and Brexit, Labor hopes to regain some of its former strongholds, for example in the north-east of England in areas like Middlesborough and Hartlepool.

In the south, analysts will be watching how the Conservatives do in traditional strongholds, affluent towns like Windsor and Maidenhead, now known as blue-walled areas. Here, Mr Johnson alienated anti-Brexit Conservative voters, allowing independent candidates and the centrist party, the Liberal Democrats, to gain an advantage. Mr. Sunak hopes his more technocratic style can arrest the slide.

Some results should appear overnight – the northern city of Sunderland, for example, was proud to have all the votes counted just a few hours after the polls closed, at 10 pm local time – but many places began counting the next day. There will be no reliable sound image across the UK until Friday.

What effect did it have on British politics?

Earlier this year, when Mr Sunak’s leadership appeared shaky, this election was seen as a potential trigger for a leadership crisis and a comeback opportunity for Mr Johnson, whose own fall was accelerated by his defeat in local elections last year.

Since then, Mr. Sunak has made a post-Brexit agreement with the European Union in Northern Ireland, and stabilized the economy after the upheaval in Liz Truss, the successor of the short-lived Mr. Johnson. In contrast, Mr Johnson is involved in investigations into whether he lied to Parliament about the party going into lockdown during the pandemic.

So Mr. Sunak’s position seems secure now. But a bad result could demoralize party workers, shake confidence in their prospects, scare critics and confirm hopes that they will delay the general election until the end of next year (due in January 2025). A better-than-expected result for the Conservatives will strengthen Mr Sunak and increase pressure on Mr Starmer.

If the Conservatives are to suffer, the prime minister has one thing at his disposal: time. On Saturday, all the attention of the British media will turn to the pomp and pageantry of the coronation of King Charles III.