Winter Derby live on Sky Sports: Full runner guide and expert verdict to Lingfield feature on Saturday

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Senior form analyst Jamie Lynch gives his verdict on Lingfield Park’s All-Weather showpiece, the BetUK Winter Derby, live on Sky Sports Racing on Saturday.

The 2022 Winter Derby update may be the best yet, as Alenquer beat Lord North in record race time, with the pair set to win Group Ones in the spring.

Lord North is back with the same agenda – a stepping stone to Dubai – which clearly clouds the issue of simple and straightforward ability, as a metric that leads the way in front of the field.

Let’s take a close look at all the runners for Saturday’s renewal, live on Sky Sports Racing.

Watch the BetUK Winter Derby from Lingfield Park live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415 | Virgin 535) on Saturday 25 February.

1 – Forest of Dean

Jockey: Collen Storey; Coaches: John & Thady Gosden

There are three things in favor. First, he was fit and fired up, fresh from his Fast-Track Qualifier win at Newcastle where he had Harrovian and King Of The South.

Second, his course work is an advantage, after finishing first and fourth in the previous edition of the Winter Derby among other good efforts around Lingfield.

And third, with age comes experience, and, at seven, it is uncomplicated and untethered by strategy, an assistive asset if, as it seems likely, the race turns out muddling and messy.

However, it is way behind the stable friend Lord North in the figure and a little or not more than most of the others, and it is not as if he will suddenly find extra gear or a few extra pounds in his age.

Therefore, it becomes a game of possibilities, and, for me, there are horses at huge prices just as likely as Forest Dean to reach the podium.

2 – Foxes Tales

Rob Hornby; Andrew Badung

A lot of water – a lot of it murky – has crossed the bridge since the summer of 2021 when Foxes Tales won the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot and the Group Three Rose Of Lancaster at Haydock, showing the form that makes him second only to Lord North in this field.

Last season was really off, as his talent waned and his temperament grew, so it seemed, but it was interesting that Andrew Balding kept him in good company, and having him geld over the winter could make a clear difference. it’s okay.

Adding to the optimism, the first time is often a good time to catch the character – he won on his reappearance as a three-year-old and was second to Mostahdaf in the Group Three first time last year.

Adding to the stimulus he will be doing, he is the first in the All-Weather since his first race in 2020. In short, he is interesting because of the back class that matches the variables that can increase his enthusiasm again.

3 – Harrovian

Kieran O’Neill; John & Thady Gosden

He’s in his fifth season of racing, and his career is like a changing talent, earning only £30,000 in prize money, despite having triple-digit ratings for 33 months.

He has run well in all three starts at Lingfield, including finishing a respectable distance behind Missed The Cut and Algiers in third at Churchill in November, but started to line up when the favorite for the Qualifier at Newcastle was won by Forest Of Dean.

If not before then why now? But perhaps the answer to the question of why he is here is to serve his fellow higher Lord North, with equal ownership.

Harrovian made a run at Newcastle, and maybe he will guarantee a good gallop to take the trick out of the race and make a class count, for the benefit of Lord North.

4 – King of the South

Jamie Spencer; William Knight

Second in the Winter Derby Trial last year, but usually steered clearly from Lingfield (despite the choice for synthetics) because the other, more galloping All-Weather Course suits his style better.

What’s more, the evidence is growing that, as he gets older, he needs a half-mile – it’s been more than two years since he last won over this half-mile distance.

He finished behind both Forest Of Dean and Harrovian in the Qualifying through this trip in Newcastle in January, telling the task up in this race with more strength in depth, on a clearer track.

Unless they go hard, which seems improbable looking at the line-up, it is difficult to see King Of The South playing many parts.

5 – Lord of the North

Rabbi Havlin; John & Thady Gosden

He is the 11th highest earning British trained horse in history. That’s enough rope for a horse that doesn’t act like one of the big ones. Of course, what matters when you win big is how you win big, and winning one and a half Sheema Classics (dead-heat in second) is obviously a huge cash cow.

However, to focus on the Dubai dollar is to underestimate his other highlights, including a memorable surge in the 2020 Prince Of Wales Stakes, when we last saw him on Coral-Eclipse when he was beaten less than a length, and unlucky to boot.

He is top class, but the burning question is whether the screws are tightened enough to show that he is this top class, with a trip back to Meydan on the horizon.

Yes, he was ousted in preparation last year, but don’t forget that it would take a race record time and a Group One horse like Alenquer to beat him, and there is none of his caliber in this field.

It is possible that Lord North won, but it is an odds probability, when it is not the main goal, after a long lay-off. I will pass.

6 – Lucander

Andrea Atzen; George Baker

This feels like a case after the event of the Lord Mayor for Lucander, whose main purpose was to be bought by George Baker at the end of last year there was to shine in Sakhir. That mission was accomplished as he won not once but twice in Bahrain, including the local Group Two just last week.

That form, in theory, puts him on par with most here outside of Lord North, but the schedule definitely raises some doubts about the possibility of seeing a full-power version of Lucander, given a lot of travel and little recovery time. Also, he is not used to the All-Weather race, having only done so once before (in 2019).

7 – Pistoletto

David Probert; John Ryan

Cara is out of his depth, as was the case in last year’s Winter Derby when he was 150/1 and not a threat. It has dropped to a rating of only 78 now, lower than before in the handicap, and the experiment on obstacles this month is nothing.

8 – Tyrrhenian Sea

David Egan; Roger Varian

The race isn’t a beauty pageant, which is a shame for her, because she’d get all the accolades as a great hunter. Even though he is five years old, there is still a sense of unfinishedness about him because he has not yet reached the heights he was promised.

This will be the tenth race of his life and it is important that Roger Varian is still thinking big, so this entry, and his return to the All-Weather may make him, considering that he was the 10/11 favorite for the Easter Classic last Good Friday.

He looks outstayed today, after trading at 33/1-in-walk, and has been kept for a mile since, but if he is going to last out trip anywhere then it will be around Lingfield.

his extra speed (relative to the rest here) will count for a lot if this becomes a tactic, which is more likely than not.

In a race where every other runner has shown his hand, long ago in some cases, the unknown quality of the Tyrrhenian Sea marks him out from the crowd, in a positive way, and he may be the most able to stand if Lord North. fall short for fitness.

JAMIE LYNCH’S VERDICT

It is easy to say that this race Lord North lost, because of the great power compared to the opposition, but equally it is hard to line up in a big way with people at odds-in knowing that, like last year, it is a warm-up after a lay-off for Sheema Classic, especially as Lingfield is a pretty unforgiving track for any ring-rustiness.

The Tyrrhenian Sea makes sense as an alternative, but with the possibility – up to 18/1 in the opening show – FOXES’ TALES very tempting for me to refuse, given that the comfort of the second best horse here in the old form and the hope that the new factor for people – especially the gelded – act as a catalyst for a comeback.