Will George Santos resign? Four scenarios on how this bizarre political situation could end.

Now that the House of Representatives finally has a speaker, the nation’s attention is finally turning to the fate of the sweater-loving first member of Congress from Long Island. After reports that George Santos made part of his resume surfaced in December, his political fortunes are now front page news again. The hallway outside the Republican’s New York office has turned into a real cable news studio as reporters and cameras line up to take a new picture of Santos dodging questions.

While Santos has faced criticism from Democrats for weeks over a long and complicated history of lies about his biography, now top Republicans in his district are rejecting him. On Wednesday, at a news conference in New York, Santos was condemned by the chairman of the Nassau County Republican Party, the Nassau county executive, and Anthony D’Esposito, a newly elected GOP congressman from a neighboring district – all of whom demanded Santos’ resignation. This was followed by the New York Conservative Party demanding Santos’ resignation in a press release describing him as morally disqualified from holding public office.

The question is what Santos is doing now. Here are four possible scenarios.

Santos was dismissed from office

While the DPR is mandated to seat Santos before the election, he can be expelled at any time now as a member. The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives may expel any member “with the concurrence of two-thirds.” As Josh Chafetz, professor of constitutional law at Georgetown, said, this can happen “for basically no reason” and is not legally reviewable.

However, impeachment is rare in American history and only five members of the House of Representatives have ever been impeached. Three became Confederates, and two refused to resign after being convicted of corruption. (The most recent was Rep. Jim Traficant, an eccentric Democrat from Ohio known for his outrageous haircut and habit of ending every speech on the floor with the words “beam me up.”) As Chafetz noted, “when it makes sense that members of Congress may be. expelled, usually withdrawn to avoid embarrassment.”

Santos retreated

Santos have insisted on Twitter, “I will not back down!” However, the precariousness of his position is made clear by the fact that he felt it necessary to adamantly insist that he did not leave Capitol Hill just a few days after arriving in Washington. Not only has he faced state and local criminal investigations, but he has also been the subject of complaints to the House Ethics Committee. One complaint to the House Ethics Committee was hand-delivered by two fellow members of the New York delegation, Reps. Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Ritchie Torres (D-NY), for the media frenzy.

In an interview with Vox Wednesday, former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), who resigned from Congress after his own scandal in 2011, said congressional ethics investigations are “not an easy process and not a cheap process.” Weiner recalled being told by Democratic superlawyer Marc Elias that it would cost him $1 million in legal fees if he stayed in office and faced an investigation. (Weiner notes that Elias tried to convince him to resign at the time.) The House Ethics Committee, which operates on a bipartisan basis, has authority only over sitting members of the House and can recommend sanctions for violating House rules that require a majority. choose to adopt.

If he resigns, a special election will be held on a date chosen by New York Governor Kathy Hochul and the nominees will be chosen by a party committee, not through a primary. In addition, if the Republicans want to hold the seat of Santos, they can calculate that the chances are better in special elections with low participation than waiting until November 2024, when voters will return to traditional partisan corners, especially in a district that won Joe Biden in 2020.

Then again, there’s no reason for Santos to care about the opinions of other Republicans — especially those who have called for him to leave office. Santos’ immediate resignation will lessen the impact if prosecutors commit misconduct while investigating questionable finances. However, it is legally more important to keep the resignation as part of the bargaining negotiations where it is one of the cards available to the new member of Congress.

Santos didn’t run anymore

There are reports that Santos has assured top Republicans in her district that she has no plans to run again. Considering that he is now a political punchline under state, local, and federal investigations, his willingness not to seek re-election is not a concession. Every revelation by Santos only makes him look more ridiculous. On Wednesday, it was revealed that he lied to Republican officials about playing on Baruch College’s championship-winning volleyball team — not only did Santos not play on the team, he didn’t attend Baruch College. The New York Times also published a copy of the résumé Santos distributed while in office, which included false claims about his college education and work history.

With the bunker down, Santos will continue to collect his federal salary and federal benefits while it is unclear what his other sources of income will be and how he will be able to cover his legal expenses as legal issues mount. It will also help Kevin McCarthy hold on to a slim, five-seat majority. If Santos resigns, there is no guarantee that he will be replaced by a fellow Republican. While Republicans may have a better chance of holding the seat in a special election than if they wait until November, it may not be worth the swing seat gamble when the current majority is so tenuous.

Santos was re-elected

LOL. Even George Santos couldn’t come up with a scenario that would happen.