Why Obi may not congratulate Tinubu, By Kayode Oladele

While Obi could not congratulate the president-elect in the short term because of the perceived political implications and the psychological dilemma Obi felt, time will tell how or what zealotry has grown in the movement and the efforts of some to consider it as an Igbocentric will. leading to better performance in the upcoming elections. Until now, the Obedient Movement can contribute to the widening of social divisions, which can eventually be consumed, instead of building a patriotic movement for national unity and progress.

The February 25 presidential election has taken several actions, reactions and processes. Some of these we can only fully understand and appreciate in later years. The election not only shows the dynamism of Nigerian politics but most importantly the capacity of the people to change their support in political parties. It also witnessed the shocking performance of the “Obidient Movement”, a political action group, which is a complex combination of youth conviction and radicalism. When the Movement complicates the political space that until now is bifurcated usually dominated by two main parties, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), it is supposed to create a ‘third force’ whose performance in the last presidential election has given. followers have the courage and confidence to believe that they can shake the table and spring out surprises in the next election in Nigeria.

However, while the 2023 presidential election and possibly the gubernatorial election that will take place on March 18 will create an interesting intellectual episode for political scientists and historians, I would like to state the reasons of Mr. Peter Obi, the ‘new’ kid on the block and the main beneficiary of the Movement who became known as Obidients, may not be willing to congratulate the President-elect, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The reasons are psychological and existential.

Undoubtedly, the previous events and the results of the 2023 presidential election have a psychological dimension: for voters and politicians. Of all the candidates, arguably, Obi faces the most difficult psychological dilemma. The former governor of Anambra State and former vice-presidential candidate for Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP in the 2019 election, in Marxist terms, committed class suicide by abandoning the past and creating a new one or linking to an independent political movement away from the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). who gave him political life as a governor in Anambra, and the PDP that made him the vice presidential candidate. He is now leading an unusual movement in the Nigerian political landscape and he does not want to waste this unique opportunity. That is why he is in a delicate situation that simultaneously attracts attention and sympathy. Therefore, Obi may not be willing to blink and congratulate President-elect Asiwaju Tinubu without negative repercussions from his followers, many of whom are yet to realize that he lost the polls.

… there is a dangerous dimension that I would like to explore. Obi’s decision not to congratulate Tinubu is not new nor will he be the first not to do so in our democratic process. But it can also be combustible, as it can lead to dangerous actions beyond the control of Obi or other political actors. Inadvertently, it may have created a monster…

In order to continue to respect the Obidients, especially the extremist elements in the group, Obi must not show signs of comfort. Indeed, Obi can only remain relevant if he can continue to hold Obidients spellbound with his uncompromising attitude and messianic personality; personality that can’t at the moment accommodate the soft in the structure that the movement has been set to demolish. Logically, Obi, like any rational politician, likes to hold back his frenzied supporters, including those who are very passionate who believe he won the February 25 presidential election and nothing else will calm their nerves. To make a consolatory call to Asiwaju in the light of this will therefore make him look as if he has chickened out of the movement which is seen and considered and arrow-head, especially for radical elements in the movement who believe. that Obi won in all the states of the federation and must return the “mandate”. As the 2023 election is a precursor to the 2027 presidential election, Obi will not be congratulating Tinubu who will also run for re-election and fight him in four years. As such, Obi likes to show his strong personality and continue to provide leadership to the movement, while making himself a rallying point for the movement and its future.

However, there is a dangerous measure that I would like to take. Obi’s decision not to congratulate Tinubu is not new nor will he be the first not to do so in our democratic process. But it can also be combustible, as it can lead to dangerous actions beyond the control of Obi or other political actors. Inadvertently, it may or may not have created a monster that could destroy many of the positive gains of the Obident Movement in the Nigerian political space. As a democratic force, the movement remains a reminder to politicians that a participatory democracy in which everyone, including the youth, is considered part of the whole, is essential to the consolidation of our democratic institutions. This is commendable.

Unfortunately, apart from the fact that the Obidients are very critical of their opposing views and are impatient with those who do not support their views, especially online, the freedom of association and expression, which the Obidients also enjoy, is one of the basic canons of democracy, and will be undemocratic, no it is not fair and unfair, morally and constitutionally, to attack or harass another person for expressing his opinion, even if you do not agree with that view. It is unfortunate that the rise of the movement has given rise to the most toxic ethnic discourse in the history of Nigeria. Obviously, an unexpected result (because this cannot be the purpose of the movement, which includes people from various geo-political zones in the county, including the Southwest) of the Obident movement is the emergence of ethnic tensions – especially among the Yorubas. from the Southwest and the Igbos from the Southeast. As I mentioned above, this cannot be the expectation of the movement, but this, unfortunately, is one of the unintended results in Lagos and if this trend is allowed to continue, it may affect the results of the Obident Movement in future elections. Although Atiku, a Northerner, also lost to Tinubu, a Southern Yoruba, there is still Yoruba-Hausa tension on the scale of Yoruba-Igbo tension that we are witnessing today because of the mischaracterization of the Obedient Movement as an attempt by the Igbos to take over Lagos to destroy the owners of the Yorubas.

The history of Yoruba-Igbo tension in Lagos is not new but Obidients can increase it or contribute to reduce it. Patriotic and nationalist movements, if properly managed and harnessed, can help improve performance, transparency and accountability in government, instill confidence in our political system, as well as strengthen our democratization process.

As I said above, many Yoruba youths and elites were mobilized for the Obedient Movement in Lagos during the last presidential election and I believe the intention is not ethnic. The history of Yoruba-Igbo tension in Lagos is not new but Obidients can increase it or contribute to reduce it. Patriotic and nationalist movements, if properly managed and harnessed, can help improve performance, transparency and accountability in government, instill confidence in our political system, as well as strengthen our democratization process. Fortunately, the president-elect has offered to build a government of national unity but he cannot do it alone without the support of Obi and Atiku, both of whom have yet to congratulate him.

While Obi could not congratulate the president-elect in the short term because of the perceived political implications and the psychological dilemma Obi felt, time will tell how or what zealotry has grown in the movement and the efforts of some to consider it as an Igbocentric will. leading to better performance in the upcoming elections. Until now, the Obedient Movement can contribute to the widening of social divisions, which can eventually be consumed, instead of building a patriotic movement for national unity and progress.

Kayode Oladele, a lawyer and former legislator, writes from Abuja.