Starmer should be sceptical of big leads
On the face of it the latest Wikipedia polling table is very good for LAB and the party is heading for a landslide whenever the election is called
The only problem is that there is a very large group of voters who went with the Tories in 2019 who continue to say don’t know. Most pollsters simply do not include them. According to the latest YouGov 23% of Conservative voters at the last general election are in this category.
Are they really going to stand aside when the big vote comes or are they going to follow their normal pattern and vote in quite heavy numbers for the blue team?
Whenever I look at the detail from a new voting intention survey my first starting point is what are 2019 Tory voters now saying.
This polling trend has been going on for several years and my guess is that it will still exist on the night of the next general election. The vast majority of GE2019 voters who currently say they don’t know are surely going to end up voting for their 2019 choice