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GE2019 CON “don’t know” the possibility to return to participate
As you can see in the betting chart above Labor is currently rated as having a 50% chance in the betting market of winning an overall majority in the next election.
I’m putting too much gloss on Labour’s position because punters are overstating it’s chance and understating Tory strength. GE2019 Tory voters now say they don’t understand the issue.
The polling details in the ill-informed table do not show that a significant proportion of Conservative voters in the last election fell into this category. They have not switched to other parties and in fact only about 10-12% now say LAB. My guess is that a significant proportion will remain in the Tory camp
It is this group that can cause poll disruptions as we saw in the 2015 general election when EdM’s chances were raised.
That’s why I believe the headline vote numbers in the polls can be distorted.
Mike Smithson
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