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I have raised this before regarding the current polls and there has been no real change in how a significant proportion of GE2019 CON voters continue to tell the polls that they don’t know.
A chart based on the latest Opinium poll numbers shows the current breakdown of voting intentions by those who supported the Tories at the last general election.
As you can see, 28% of people who voted for Johnson’s party in December 2019 now tell the poll that they don’t know. This is an important part of the electorate and remember these are the people who vote.
Frustratingly only a few pollsters present the data in the form where I believe the most important elements are available.
While it is hard for me to see how Sunak’s party can hold on, I am not yet convinced that LAB will have a majority – 50% +1 out of 650 seats. I have a bet on LAB not having a majority.
Mike Smithson
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