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When I write Donald Trump is currently rated on Betfair as having a 66% chance of becoming the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2024 White House race when he will be 78 years old. While I am a strong favorite, I am not sure that he has a 65% chance, which is how the bet should be evaluated.
We are more than six months away from the first primary and do not underestimate the desire of the media to want a story about the nomination race that will attract attention.
Don’t rely on early polls that are largely about name recognition rather than expressions of real preference. When Republican voters were asked to choose the name of their choice, the only thing that came to mind was Trump. It only requires a good showing by the alternative in one of the early primaries and suddenly the whole race can be seen strange.
Also the drip-by-strip reporting of Trump’s many legal problems will be a boost for the alternative to go forward and the GOP fund to question whether he is the one to back down.
Laying Trump on the odds exchange betting now is good.
Mike Smithson
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