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First, there is the question of how the majority is defined. This is from Smarkets:
This market will be determined based on which party (if any) wins the majority of seats (50% +1) in the next UK general election. Speakers will not be counted in the party’s total number of seats, but will be counted in the overall number of seats.
According to my calculations, this means that LAB went from 202 seats in GE2019 to 326 which looks terrible and slightly higher than what is needed for an effective majority. Because of Sin Fein’s policy of not taking up seats, this will be about 317 and still need 115 results which is not too far from what Tony Blair got in GE1997.
So, it is possible that Starmer’s party can form a government because it does not have an overall majority.
It is also interesting that after the local elections, John Curtice talked about Labor winning many seats but possibly falling short of a majority. The Tories are doing better than the Westminster polls today
Of course the election could be eighteen months away and a lot could happen that could change everything.
Mike Smithson
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