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The polls continue to be miserable for the Tories and we have seen no real signs of change since the Windsor agreement last week. You can just feel the frustration from the Tory camp at a moment when it seems nothing can really change the poll numbers.
In the leadership rankings Sunak continues to trail Starmer and the best PM poll questions again, the Tory leader finds himself in second place.
The poll details are less bad for the Tories because although they may have lost a fifth of the GE2019 vote to LAB, the change is not much more than that. A significant proportion of those who voted Conservative in the 2019 general election continued to say they did not know when asked by pollsters and did not give a party preference.
My guess is that when it comes to the crunch, a very significant proportion of Tory now do not know if they will vote for Sunak’s party.
Another factor is the impact of the new constituency boundaries and all analysis suggests that the Tories benefit more than LAB adding perhaps 10 CON seats so as not to help challenge Labour.
Although it may not get the view of a Labor majority it will be the winner of the election with Starmer being one of those who got a call from the Palace.
Mike Smithson
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