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Tonight’s R&W poll has LAB’s lead down to just 13%, the lowest since Sunak became PM. This is in line with trends from other polls where all but two have boundaries in their teens – not their 20s. These two exceptions have never been tested in an actual election,
Where I think the betting market got it wrong is that they are not looking at the very high proportion of 2019 Tory voters who are still telling the polls they don’t know. This has returned from 25% a few moths ago to 16% in the latest survey but still distorting the overall findings.
My strong view is that this will change more for the Tories as we get closer. Only 13% of CON GE2019 voters have switched to Starmer’s party according to this poll.
We have local elections in two weeks on Thursday and this may give us a better perspective. I am now betting that there will not be a majority of LAB.
Mike Smithson
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