This article is part of HuffPost’s biweekly political newsletter. Click here to subscribe.
Supporters of gun safety legislation are holding rallies across the state of Michigan this week, including one in Oxford, a suburb north of Detroit that was the site of a high school massacre in November 2021.
Among the speakers were Madeline Johnson, who survived a shooting that saw his best friend die. He talks about his fear of public speaking – and how that fear “tore from me, along with my childhood, when I heard the first bullet ringing in my ear.”
“There are scarier things in the world than giving a speech,” he said, according to an account by The Detroit News. “I have no more room in my life to be a child, but I will be happy to sacrifice, and I will be happy to talk until you listen, so that no one else has to grow up overnight.”
The frustration from Johnson and other gun law advocates is palpable, and mirrors what has happened since the Oxford shooting — when, despite “thoughts and prayers,” Republicans who control the state legislature have refused to act.
But that may soon change, as Republicans no longer control the legislature. The Democrats did. In the midterm elections, they won majority in the Michigan House and its Senatesomething they haven’t had since the 1980s.
Democratic leaders have made it clear they want to pass a trio of gun laws: universal background checks, new gun storage requirements, and “red flag” legislation intended to keep firearms out of the hands of people who pose a direct threat. others or ourselves. Newly re-elected Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer has said this high priority for him too.
This reform is part of a wider one agenda that Whitmer and the newly elected Democrats hoped to pass, now they can act. It includes everything from a boost in tax credits for working families to codified protection for reproductive rights.
And it’s not just Michigan where this kind of activity takes place. You’ll hear similar plans from Democratic officials in other states that have the power to pass legislation — especially the other three (Maryland, Massachusetts and Minnesota) where, as in Michigan, Democrats won that power for the first time in years.
Of course, the law is not as easy as it promises. The exercise of moving from slogans to specifics—translating abstract concepts into statutory details—is always difficult, especially on issues that are opposition-funded and well-organized.
But in today’s political environment, Democrats have a big advantage: On many of the major issues that are addressed at the state level, they seem to be more in tune with popular opinion than Republicans.
Gun safety is one such issue.
Gun Laws Politics Have Changed
That may be hard to believe, at least in Michigan, where about 4 in 10 adults own at least one gun. But it turns out that three reforms implemented by Democrats are very popular, according to opinion polls – including a September survey of EPIC-MRA where all three received at least plurality support, and two received majority support, even among members of the National Rifle Association.
It is not easy to prove that these measures will have an impact on gun violence, as the scientific research that does not support them is hard to find. But there are many suggestive evidence that these measures may reduce mass shootings, at least on the periphery, and may have a greater impact on suicides.
The possibility of reducing suicides is one of the reasons gun safety laws have been a priority for a long time Rosemary Bayer, a veteran Democratic state senator from Michigan. Bayer said he had two people in his life die by suicide – a classmate in high school and later a member of his family. “You never forget it, if it happens to someone close to you,” he said. “You think, what can I do, what should I do.”
But Bayer also reacts to the killing of others – whether in everyday life or in mass shootings like the one in Oxford, which happened in her district.
I happened to talk to him a few weeks after that. He is shaken by the tragedy, as is everyone in the region, but hopes that a combination of sympathy and anger might spur action — especially since Mike Shirkey, the Republican leader of the state Senate, has promised to hold hearings on the issue. But he never did.
Shirkey can use that kind of power because the Republicans have a key in the state legislature, thanks to gerrymandering that is protected by the majority even if they are out of step with public opinion. Last year was the first election with districts drawn by a nonpartisan commission. Incidentally, this is the first time in decades that Democrats have won again.
The majority is not large, so it is clear – only a few seats. And opposition to even modest proposals for gun regulation is sure to be fierce. But support for the measure is solid, according to EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn. If anything, it’s stronger than a few years ago, given all the recent attention on mass school shootings.
“Perhaps vigorous debate will lead to support for many of the proposed proposals being tested, but I think this will only happen if supporters of gun safety legislation are not strong in their efforts to send a counter message on the issue,” said Porn. in email.
The Republican Party Can’t Avoid the Vote Anymore
Democratic State Sen. Mallory McMorrowwho is the majority whip and long supporter of these proposals, said he also thinks gun politics is changing.
“The fact that this affects our own background — from the Oxford high school shooting to just a few incidents of gun violence every day that happen in Michigan — I think that public opinion on this issue has changed and changed significantly,” McMorrow said. me.
McMorrow noted that the proposed measures and other Democrats have support from some Republican officials at the local level, which will make it harder for opponents to paint the effort as partisan. “We have had some local Republican partners in the past, we just haven’t been able to get this across the line,” she said.
In the past, GOP leaders have blocked bills from going to committee or from going to the floor to prevent members from voting. Now lawmakers must declare their positions — and Bayer thinks at least some Republicans will think twice before voting no on these popular measures.
“It’s the first time he’s had to speak for himself,” Bayer said. And if these Republicans do not support the proposals, they will risk the backlash of the majority of Michigan voters – not to mention activists like Maddie Johnson, whose voices and personal stories have made such an impression.
If you or someone you know needs help, call 988 or call 1-800-273-8255 to National Suicide Prevention Lifeline. You can also get support via text by visiting suicidepreventionlifeline.org/chat. Outside the US, please visit International Association for Suicide Prevention for database of resources.