Why Biden’s trip to Mexico is key for immigration, drugs, and democracy

President Joe Biden arrived in Mexico City on Monday, less than a day after right-wing followers of the former Brazilian president attacked Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace. Less than a week earlier, a wave of violence hit the country of Mexico after the country’s military arrested Ovidio Guzmán, the son of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, and the head of the Sinaloa cartel.

So, while trade, drugs, and immigration were the dominant themes at this week’s summit of North American leaders (Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was also in attendance), there were other issues at stake in the talks, which continued on Tuesday. The democratic state of America, the rule of law in Mexico, and the power of drug cartels are additional backdrops that Biden and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, must consider.

These issues may seem like distant foreign policy topics to the average American, but each challenge is related to the US immigration crisis. And while they are not trivial to daily life in the US, these issues have trickle-down effects that are visible (drug overdoses, increased migration, and domestic immigration politics), and invisible (the strength of democracy). here and in our hemisphere).

The meeting had an awkward but important moment for Biden. With an election year and a Republican majority in the House, Biden faces a historic migrant crisis at the border and Republican oversight, a near-record number of overdose deaths in the US, largely fueled by fentanyl from Mexico, and the erosion of democratic norms in Mexico, and America in general.

Biden’s meeting with Lopez Obrador

The two presidents had met on Monday to talk about strengthening supply chains, curbing migration, and stopping the flow of fentanyl into the US, and will be joined by Trudeau on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that while the focus will be on “greater law enforcement cooperation,” the climate crisis, and health, it is “migration, fentanyl, and integrated supply chains and the increased strength of North American manufacturing and innovation power.” in critical sectors, including in the clean energy sector” which is Biden’s biggest focus.

It’s not surprising, given the record number of border crossings in the US last year and the flow of drugs like fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the United States. Biden’s trip to Mexico City comes after the president visited the US-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, on Sunday, and after his administration expanded rules to remove migrants from the US under Title 42, the controversial public health code used by the Trump administration to deport them. migrants without allowing them to apply for asylum in the US.

Mexican officials are quick to point out that of the number of crossings that have taken place, the majority are from non-Mexican migrants – mostly from Central and South America, where political instability, poverty, and persecution from organized crime have forced people to leave.

Coincidentally, Biden was also in Mexico a few days after the Mexican military arrested Guzmán – who the US alleges is a high-ranking member of the powerful Sinaloa cartel, and a key part of the movement of fentanyl into the US. The movement of fentanyl into the US is one of the country’s biggest national security threats: fentanyl-related overdoses are the leading cause of death for Americans 18-49. Two-thirds of the more than 100,000 Americans who died of drug overdoses between 2021 and 2022 were killed by fentanyl; and combined with the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, synthetic opioids have reduced American life expectancy to the lowest since 1996.

Guzmán’s arrest sparked violent clashes between cartel members and the Mexican military in the state of Sinaloa last week. The cartel’s massive show of force, which took over three of the country’s largest cities, shot down military and civilian planes, seized an airport, and killed nearly 30 Mexican soldiers, shows the power of transnational criminal organizations in Mexico.

Although Mexican officials said the raid to capture Guzmán was not scheduled for the leader’s summit, it was still a signal to the Biden administration and Congress that Mexico could still be a partner in the fight against drug trafficking and cartels, experts said. Despite López Obrador’s hands-off approach to dealing with the cartels – he famously approved a policy of “hugs, not bullets” to focus on social welfare programs to stop the cause – two important arrests of drug lords have occurred in the weeks before the meeting with Biden. .

But the issue of drugs and migration shows some of the limitations of Biden’s visit: These are issues related to human rights issues that are related to and should be related to the democratic state of America. While López Obrador was quick to condemn the actions of the rioters in Brazil, he refused to accept criticism for his own attacks on journalists in Mexico, his efforts to reform the country’s independent electoral commission, and the militarization of the country through a new national organization. maintain (which is formed). All of this is a slow-moving anti-democratic campaign to consolidate power in the executive branch, challenge the independence of other branches of government, and silence critics — the kind of actions that create social instability and undermine trust in institutions.

“Biden won’t say anything because he made an implicit Trump-like deal in exchange for AMLO stopping migration,” one Mexican journalist said. said this week, echoing the feelings of many Mexican journalists and media commentators. The erosion of democratic norms in Mexico and other countries in the Americas is not specifically on the agenda of items that the leaders will discuss, despite calls from congressional leaders, such as the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Bob Menendez. inquire the Biden administration to raise these concerns with López Obrador) and human rights organizations. But the chances of Biden publicly criticizing López Obrador are slim, said Andrew Rudman, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center think tank.

“If he says something in public, it will only create conflict, because López Obrador will deny it, he will say, ‘How about you,’ and it will not achieve anything,” Rudman said. “But President Biden has to say that these things are important. I hope the president explains that people in the United States are really watching what is happening and are concerned and want to help, but also see that democracy and the weakness of security can have a negative impact on the economy of Mexico and in. the trilateral desire to promote North America as a strong and vibrant region.

Previous attempts by US officials to highlight concerns about violence and impunity in Mexico have led to a harsh response from López Obrador: Almost a year ago, he called Secretary of State Antony Blinken “misinformed” for expressing concern about the killing of journalists. And the Mexican president attacked US lawmakers and Biden for reports that the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act calls for the US to review “any changes to Mexico’s electoral and democratic institutions.”

“How can you say that you are a vibrant democracy, if your people do not believe that you have free and fair elections? That must up,” said Rudman. “The longstanding American value of supporting democracy and President Biden not expressing support for those values ​​with President López Obrador would be a missed opportunity.”

For his part, on Monday afternoon, Biden mentioned “supporting and building democratic institutions in the hemisphere” before the bilateral meeting with AMLO.

Tied to the mandate to defend democracy is Mexico making progress on economic development and impunity for cartels. More than 90 percent of murders in Mexico go unsolved, including the majority of cartel-related violence. Guzmán’s capture has earned Mexico credibility for addressing some of the root causes of violence and migration, but more work needs to be done to convince the US that it is truly trying to dismantle the criminal network. That part depends on Mexico — and its North American partners can help — and it will have lasting effects on America and how we conduct our politics.