Who will lead Iran now that Khamenei is gone? It’s not clear

In the days since the surprise death of Iran’s supreme leader at the hands of the U.S. and Israel Saturday, there has been much speculation — and confusion — about who’s in charge and who will succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

It’s only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen. 

Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years, died Saturday in the attack by Israel and the U.S. without an officially declared heir. 

Among the names that come up most is one of Khamenei’s sons, Mojtaba. Some media were already reporting Tuesday that he was the choice. But there has not been official confirmation. 

And given the U.S. desire for regime change, naming the son of the very man Israel and the U.S. just killed might not sit well with the Trump administration. 

Here’s what to know: 

Who’s in charge right now? 

In the event of the death of the supreme leader, his powers are transferred temporarily to a group of three — the current president, the head of the judiciary and a senior cleric from the Guardian Council.

Currently in charge are Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Eje’i and senior Shia cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that a new supreme leader would be chosen this week.

Who names the new supreme leader?

In theory, the new leader is chosen by the so-called Assembly of Experts, made up of 88 Shia clerics who are elected after their candidacies are approved by Iran’s constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council.

But it’s unclear if that can happen as the country remains under constant attack. In fact, on Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the building where the Assembly was meeting had been bombed. It was not clear whether any of the clerics were killed. 

Who are some potential successors?

Khamenei had major influence over both the Assembly and the Guardian Council, making it unlikely the next leader will mark a radical departure if chosen by them. And top of that list has been Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Khamenei, who is a mid-level Shia cleric.

Mojtaba Khamenei has strong ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) but has never held office. His selection could also be problematic as the Islamic Republic has long criticized hereditary rule.

As well, it’s not clear if Mojtaba is even alive. State media reported that his wife was killed Saturday but made no mention of his whereabouts. 

Ali Reza Arafi is a senior Shia cleric who was hand-picked by Khamenei to be a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, and three years later he was elected to the Assembly of Experts. 

Hassan Khomeini is the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He is seen as a relative moderate, but has also never held government office.

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, has also come up as a possible next successor, especially at rallies for regime change outside Iran. He was 16 when Iran’s 1979 revolution toppled his father. He has lived in the U.S. ever since. 

In an interview Sunday with CBS’s 60 Minutes, he said he sees himself as “a transitional leader. Not as the future king or future president or future whatever,” he said.

“Let me bring the country to a point that they can make that free choice. That would be enough for me having said mission accomplished.”

Trump, though, has expressed doubts about Pahlavi. Asked about him Tuesday, Trump said that while “some people like him,” he was unsure “how he’d play within his own country.” 

“I don’t know whether or not his country would accept his leadership,” he added. “Certainly if they would, that would be fine with me.”

Has Trump weighed in on a successor?

In a video about the attack on Iran posted Saturday, Trump called on the Iranian people to “take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”

Later that day, he told CBS News that there were “some good candidates” to replace Khamenei, but he did not name them. 

Asked again Tuesday if he had anyone in mind to take over leadership in Iran, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, “Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead.”

Sahar Razavi, associate professor and director of the Iranian and Middle Eastern Studies Center at California State University, Sacramento, says Trump has not been very clear sometimes on what he is asking for or what he wants.

“I think that it’s also possible that this is rhetorical framing in order to be able to put someone in that perhaps a majority of Iranians do not support,” Razavi said in an interview with CBC’s Andrew Nichols, “but they are being primed to believe that there are no alternatives left, and so they would be willing to accept whoever the United States puts in place.”

What else could happen?

For months, people have flooded the streets of Iran calling for the end of the brutal leadership regime. There have been calls for a shift to a democratic system.

Razavi is unsure that will happen. 

“It’s difficult to see how Iran could emerge from this as a meaningfully democratic system if it is happening at the end of the barrel of a gun,” she said. 

Razavi said she can also see a scenario in which the IRGC takes over and Iran becomes a military dictatorship, or that there is some kind of a compromise that allows the Islamic republic to retain itself and its structure in name while making very deep concessions to U.S. and Israeli foreign policy interests. 

And she warned there could also be a complete regime collapse and creation of a power vacuum and that would leave Iran vulnerable to foreign occupation.

“There are a lot of different possibilities and certainly democracy is one of them,” she said, “but it’s difficult to see a clear path to that.”