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My best bet is late fall next year
One of the things about British politics these days is that there is no speculation about when Sunak will decide to go to the country. Normally in the fourth year after an election, you would expect this to happen.
The Tory majority is big enough for Sunak not to worry and he will leave when the time is right for the party and the possibilities. He also wants to stay at Number 10 as long as possible and he will know what happened in TMay in GE2017 when in his efforts to increase CON’s majority, he did not have a majority. This is despite having a 20%+ lead in the polls
When Johnson became PM, he changed the law to return the decision on the date of the general election to the PM himself, so this is all in Sunak’s hands.
Unless there is a dramatic change in the polls I guess that the election will be called in October next year to take place in November.
This will make for an interesting betting market.
Mike Smithson
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