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It’s been less than a week since leaks of classified military documents about the Ukraine war emerged, sending the Pentagon into immediate damage control to reassure allies and assess the scope of the information revealed.
Information about the number of slides has revealed potential vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and evaluated private assessments by allies on various intelligence issues, raising questions about whether the leak will undermine the trust of allies to share information with the US or affect Ukraine’s plans. escalate the war against Russia this spring.
Overall, the leaked documents pose “a very serious risk to national security,” a top Pentagon spokesman told reporters Monday.
Here’s a look at what the document is, what we know about how it came about, and its potential impact.
What is it?
The classified documents – which have not been individually confirmed by US officials – range from brief slides mapping Ukraine’s military positions to assessments of international support for Ukraine and other sensitive topics, including under what conditions Russian President Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons.
There is no clear answer as to how many documents have been leaked. The Associated Press has seen about 50 documents; some estimates put the total number in the hundreds.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said some of the leaked documents had been treated but it was unclear who leaked them, what their motives were or if more were forthcoming.
Where did it come from?
No one knows, not even the head of the Pentagon.
“They are somewhere on the web, and where exactly, and who has access points, we don’t know. We just don’t know,” said US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a press conference Tuesday. “We will continue to investigate and transform each stone until we find this source and its size.”
It is possible that the leak started on a site called Discord.
Discord is a popular social media platform with people who play games online. The Discord site hosts real-time voice, video and text chats for groups and describes itself as “where you can be a school club, gaming group, or art community around the world.”
In one of these forums, originally created to talk about various topics, members will debate the war in Ukraine. According to one member of the chat, an unidentified poster shared a document that the poster claimed was classified, first typed with the poster’s thoughts, and then, a few months ago, uploaded a picture of the folded paper.
A person who said he was a member of the forum told The Associated Press that another person, known online only as “Lucca,” shared the document in a different Discord chat. From there, they seem to have spread until they were picked up by the media.
Many details of the story could not be immediately verified. And top US officials have publicly acknowledged that they are still trying to find answers.
What does it reveal?
The leak highlights how closely the US monitors how its allies and friends interact with Russia and China. Officials in several countries denied or denied the allegations from the leaked records.
The AP has reported on US intelligence picking up claims from Russian operatives that they are forging closer ties with the United Arab Emirates, an oil-rich Middle Eastern country that hosts important American military installations. The United Arab Emirates denied the allegations, calling them “totally false”.
The Washington Post reported Monday that Egypt’s president ordered his subordinates to secretly prepare to send up to 40,000 rockets to Russia during the war in Ukraine. A spokesman for Egypt’s foreign ministry said Egypt remains “noninvolved in this crisis and is committed to maintaining an equal distance with both sides.”
Other leaks include allegations that South Korean leaders are hesitant to send artillery shells to Ukraine and that Israel’s Mossad spy service is fighting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposed court overhaul plan.
Funded at US$90 billion per year, US intelligence agencies have the power to tap electronic communications, expose spies and monitor with satellites. The result of that power is rarely seen in public, even in a limited form.
US response
The Pentagon has begun an internal review to assess the impact of the leak on national security.
The Pentagon has also moved quickly to limit the number of people who have access to its briefings, according to a defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. Pentagon officials are also closely monitoring where the leaked slides were “delivered and amplified,” said Chris Meagher, the U.S. assistant secretary of defense for public affairs.
Separately, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how the slides were obtained and leaked.
CIA Director William Burns on Tuesday called the leak “very unfortunate.”
What is the effect?
Senior military leaders have contacted allies to deal with the fallout. That includes calls “at a high level to reassure them of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and loyalty to our security partnership. The conversation began at the end of the week and continues,” said Meagher.
US officials will face more questions when they travel to Germany next week for the next contact group meeting, where representatives of more than 50 countries are gathering to coordinate arms and support for Ukraine. But the leak of the document will not affect the meeting or allies’ willingness to continue providing military aid to Ukraine, a senior US defense official told The Associated Press, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter.
“I think many allies will be more curious about why this is happening,” said Chris Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic security initiative. Because of the high level of security clearance required to access the information in the first place, the leak raises questions about who “would have an agenda to put it in there,” and whether the goal is to undermine support for Ukraine, Skaluba said.
Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken reached out to their counterparts in Ukraine. Austin suggested Tuesday the leaks would not have much impact on Ukraine’s plans for a spring offensive.
Ukraine’s strategy “will not be driven by a specific plan. They have a good plan to start with but only President Zelenskyy and his leadership know the full details of that plan,” Austin said.
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