What was China thinking? The mystery of its balloon motive raises tensions with U.S.

If all goes according to plan this week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken may have landed in China, lunched with officials and possibly had a tête-à-tête with Chinese Leader Xi Jinping at Zhongnanhai, Beijing’s version of the White House.

And just maybe, China and the U.S. will take the necessary steps to repair their long dysfunctional relationship, pointing the finger at trade and Taiwanand military tensions rise in the South China Sea.

Of course, the plan exploded, just like the Chinese balloon that burst last weekend, shot down by an American pilot after flying over Alaska, the West Coast of Canada and clearly across the US It gained notoriety as it floated over a sensitive nuclear missile silo in Montana.

Due to the damage of the balloon, Blinken’s visit was postponed indefinitely. The situation was not “conducive,” he said, after China committed an “irresponsible act” of violating US airspace with what Washington believed to be a spy blimp.

China calls it “civilian airship,” “regrets” that weather balloons have disappeared. It considers the Pentagon’s decision to destroy “a clear overreaction” worthy of a diplomatic protest.

So much for the promise to “raise the relationship” that Xi made with US President Joe Biden at the last summit in Bali last November – and open the lines of communication.

“I want to be clear,” Biden said at the time, “so there is no misunderstanding” between the two countries. That’s when he offered to send Blinken to start the thaw.

“I believe there is no need for a new Cold War,” Biden said.

‘Totally counterproductive’

But in the week, it is have it gets colder. And Beijing’s unclear decisions made the situation even more tense.

This has many wondering: What is China thinking? Why would they allow such a provocative move when they are getting ready to welcome America’s top diplomat?

“It’s almost as if the Chinese did this on purpose [President Xi] lose face” speculation Guy Saint-Jacques, the former Canadian Ambassador to China, “to create more problems for them.”

Xi has been in political trouble lately, as China grapples with a nationwide COVID-19 outbreak after the country sudden about-face on how to handle the pandemic, even though it is an unusual – and dangerous – move to challenge Xi’s imminent power.

WATCH | Biden ordered the balloon to be shot down:

“It’s the goals themselves that are confusing,” said Lincoln Hines, who teaches at the US Air War College in Alabama and specializes in China. “It’s counterproductive to what China is doing on the world stage” by presenting itself as upholding international law while the US does what it wants, he said.

He said the balloon could have been sent by one Chinese government department without consulting another, the kind of bureaucratic error that happened in 2007 during a controversial time. Chinese anti-satellite test. In the incident, the foreign ministry was “turning a blind eye”.

Someone in China’s government or military might decide to take the goods themselves, inspired by China’s official “belligerent” attitude toward the U.S., said Tong Zhao, a former foreign policy adviser to the Beijing government who now conducts research. at Princeton University and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are mostly based in Beijing.

“In this environment, everyone has an incentive to be critical of the US,” Zhao said. “This motivates Chinese diplomats to become ‘wolf soldiers’ and makes Chinese military officers act more decisively on the front lines,” he said.

“This makes unplanned encounters more dangerous,” Zhao said.

For Zhao, this fits her trend learn from different perceptions of other powers – and motivations – in Washington and Beijing.

This is a perception gap that “reduces their interest in meaningful dialogue with the other side when they believe that the other side is constantly lying and violating international principles and norms,” ​​he said, causing communication to be cut off at critical times. .

‘amazing’

In the latest incident, the Pentagon said it had requested a phone call between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe on Saturday, just as the balloon was shot down. China rejected the chance to communicate.

However, the rhetoric has pushed both administrations to take an increasingly strong, Republican position in the polarized US political atmosphere. forced Biden to immediately shoot the balloon, China’s vice foreign minister attacked Washington for “increasing tensions.”

“What the United States has done has greatly affected and undermined the efforts and progress made by both sides to stabilize China-US relations,” said vice foreign minister Xie Feng. quoted as said in the Chinese state media.

Experts in North America are not convinced that there are many benefits to China using airships for spying, even if there are evidence have an interest in doing so.

“They have other, frankly, better ways to gather intelligence, especially from satellites in orbit,” said Kari Bingen, who holds the Pentagon’s second-most important civilian intelligence job during the Trump Administration.

He said it was unclear why the balloons would be sent, but Chinese officials often “play by their own rules,” especially when it comes to acquiring U.S. technology — calling the latest move “very brazen.”

Some think China knows that the balloon will appear, and this is the real purpose of sending it to the US – to provoke anger and accelerate political polarization, said Michel Juneau-Katsuya, former Head of the Strategic Analysis Unit for Asia-Pacific at the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service, CSIS .

Payback, perhaps, for the embarrassment caused by US aid to Taiwan and high-profile visits to the self-governing island that China claims, he said. To “embarrass Mr. Biden, because this is what you brought to us when [your officials and politicians] go to Taiwan.”

WATCH | New tension due to spy balloons:

It’s tit-for-tat moves like this that worry analysts the most as they watch Beijing and Washington clash without knowing their intentions.

Zhao fears a misperception of a “dangerous” situation like Taiwan. The U.S. believes China is developing military means to invade the island, he said, while China believes the U.S. is “trying to foment a deliberate conflict over Taiwan.”

“It is possible,” he said, “that this perception gap could lead to military conflict.”

With direct talks between Chinese and American officials on hold, tensions only seem set to continue to rise.