What to know about Nigeria’s critical election

Nigerians voted on Saturday in the most open presidential and parliamentary elections since Africa’s most populous nation transitioned from military rule to democracy in 1999.

However voters decide, it will leave the new president with many complex challenges on his plate, from growing frustration over cash and fuel shortages, to insecurity and rising inflation.

President Muhammadu Buhari was not on the ballot, having served the maximum two terms allowed by the constitution. Voters will also elect new senators and members of the House of Representatives.

About 93.4 million people are registered to vote, three-quarters of whom are between the ages of 18 and 49. In 2019, the number of voters was only 35 percent.

Who can win?

A lack of polling is believed to make it difficult to predict the winner, but out of 18 candidates, three are considered a real opportunity.

Labor Party Peter Obi, 61, leading in some opinion polls after galvanizing young voters, many of whom have nothing to do with the main party candidates, who are both septuagenarian political veterans, in the 70s.

“I don’t want to pick one of them, but we have Peter Obi who … is a sign of hope for many of us,” first selector Amanda Ihema told Reuters.

Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu, 70, is the candidate for Buhari’s ruling All Progressives Congress

Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 76, is the main opposition candidate of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). He is the sixth president.

While Obi, who left the PDP last year and became Atiku’s running mate in 2019, frustration over the economy and insecurity have turned voters against the two main parties, Tinubu and Atiku have a significant power base in Nigeria. The ruling party also has a great advantage because it can use the state apparatus to mobilize support.

Competition for dwindling oil revenues, patronage and ethnic rivalries usually play a bigger role in Nigerian elections than ideology.

Tinubu, Atiku and Obi have all made reviving the economy and ending insecurity top priorities, promising better pay for security forces and other military equipment to defeat the insurgents.

The manifesto says it will scrap fuel subsidies that cost billions years ago but differed on how quickly it would do so. He also promised to invest more in education.

The violence has not subsided

The main problem for many Nigerian voters is the spread of insecurity.

The United Nations (UN) on Thursday appealed for $1.3 billion to provide aid to six million Nigerians affected by the long-running Islamist insurgency in the northeast.

The militant group Boko Haram and its offshoot, the Islamic State of West Africa Province, have been fighting security forces there for more than a decade, displacing more than 2 million people and killing hundreds more, aid agencies said.

Matthias Schmale, UN resident and humanitarian coordinator for Nigeria said that more than 80 percent of people in need of aid in the three states – Borno, Adamawa and Yobe – are women and children.

“They face the risk of violence, kidnapping, rape and abuse,” he said.

North-central Nigeria is prone to violence due to clashes between herdsmen and nomadic farmers. The conflict is often painted as an ethno-religious conflict, with the majority Fulani Muslims and the farmers mainly Christians. But experts say population growth and climate change are leading to the expansion of areas devoted to farming, leaving less land available for open grazing for cattle.

At least 54 people were killed last month, including cattle herders and bystanders, in a suspected bomb blast in Nasarawa state.

Economic crash, brain drain

In a country where most people rely on cash for everything from taxi fares to buying food from the market, the shortage of naira bills has shocked residents, with some storming banks and setting fire to cash dispensing machines.

Sixteen countries on Wednesday asked the country’s top court to force the central bank to extend the use of old paper money for six months, because the withdrawal from circulation has exacerbated shortages.

The recent chaotic scene at the banks added to Nigerian frustrations that include high inflation – nearly 22 percent in the January report – and fuel shortages.

As a result of displacement due to violence and economic hardship, the number of children suffering from acute malnutrition is expected to rise to 2 million this year, from 1.74 million last year, the UN said on Thursday.

As the economy suffers, hundreds of Nigerians are leaving the country in a punishing brain drain that has weakened the health care system and disrupted services from banking to technology.

Canada is one of the best destinations for expats. Nigeria ranked fifth among all countries as a source of immigrants who obtained immigrant or permanent resident status between 2016 and 2021, according to Statistics Canada.

Last horrible week

Authorities said Chinyere Igwe, a member of the House of Representatives, was arrested early Friday after he was caught illegally carrying nearly $500,000 in cash. The arrests have raised new concerns about the influence of money in elections.

To make matters worse, Labor Party senatorial candidate Oyibo Chukwu and the driver of a campaign minibus he owned were killed in separate attacks in the south-east of Enugu State last Wednesday. Police said they were suspected of being members of two Biafran separatist groups that have been outlawed by Nigerian authorities.

Authorities in the northwestern state of Kano announced that they had arrested more than 60 “suspected thugs with dangerous weapons” after supporters of political parties clashed on Thursday.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) said 240 polling centers would not be used due to insecurity, mostly in northeastern Taraba state, where Islamists have carried out attacks, as well as southeastern Imo state, a hotbed of separatism and gang violence.

Official results are expected in five days. The candidate with the most votes will be declared the winner if he has at least a quarter of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and capitals. Otherwise, there will be a run-off between the top two candidates in 21 days.