Former President Donald Trump is in New York, ready for arrest and arraignment Tuesday on charges related to money paid to porn actor Stormy Daniels shortly before the 2016 election. of former US presidents have had time to engage with the American people, and media organizations and polling settings have had time to conduct detailed surveys of their feelings.
It’s really hard to give an opinion on Trump. He has been a celebrity for 40 years and perhaps the dominant figure in American life for the past eight years. Most Americans have a relatively firm attitude towards former casino owners, pop culture and right-wing politicians.
Combine that with the fact that the details of the Daniels scandal – a well-known wealthy man who allegedly had an affair and then paid the woman to keep quiet – have been known since early 2018 and are not exactly against Trump. libertine imageand that’s a recipe for stasis.
Still, today’s polls can tell us a lot about how Americans view Trump, the impeachment and the 2024 presidential election. Here are four takeaways:
Americans think an indictment is warranted.
In three polls released since the indictment was announced Thursday, a plurality or majority of the public has approved the grand jury’s decision to indict — 51% of voters in Morning Consultation poll45% of Americans in a ABC News/Ipsos poll and 60% of Americans in a CNN/SSRS poll. In all three, between 30% and 40% of respondents disagreed with the decision.
The Morning Consult and ABC News/Ipsos polls gave respondents a “don’t know” option, while CNN did not. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll, 23% said they did not know the allegations were warranted, while 12% said so in a Morning Consult poll. (The gap between the two can be down to differences in respondents. Morning Consult examines voters, who tend to have strong opinions and more information than nonvoting members of the public.)
The CNN survey also found that only 10% of Americans hold Trump blameless for the payments to Daniels, while 37% think the actions were illegal and 33% think they are unethical but not illegal.
He also thinks the charges are political.
At the same time, the public believed that politics played an important role, which drove the investigation of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and the jury’s decision to indict. In a CNN poll, a majority of 52% said politics played a “major” role in the decision to impeach Trump, while 76% said it played at least a role. An ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 47% of Americans think the allegations are politically motivated, while 32% do not.
Morning Consult’s question on the matter was evenly split: 46% said the jury’s decision was largely due to “Evidence that he [Trump] commit a crime,” compared with 43% who said it was primarily because of “Motivation to damage his political career.”
A poll from Navigator Research, a Democratic group, suggested party officials countered Republican messaging on politically motivated charges by insisting that “no one is above the law, not even the former President.”
It may help Trump among Republicans.
Even before the indictment, surveys in recent weeks have shown Trump building a substantial lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) in the GOP presidential primary poll. The indictment, which led to DeSantis defending Trump even as a Trump-aligned super PAC attacked DeSantis, is unlikely to change that dynamic in the short term.
Polls show that Republicans, especially GOP primary voters, disapprove of the indictment. In a Morning Consult poll, for example, only 19% of GOP primary voters approved of the impeachment, while 70% disapproved. A survey of Marist College, NPR and the Public Broadcasting Service – released just days before the indictment – found that 80% of Republicans thought Trump was the victim of a “witch hunt.”
The impact on the 2024 general election may be minimal.
Currently, Trump is the favorite to win the GOP nomination and challenge President Joe Biden in his expected 2024 re-election campaign.. Polls generally indicate a prospective matchup between the two will be close, and the impeachment did not immediately change that.
About a third of Americans have a favorable opinion of Trump in CNN’s latest poll, while 58% have an unfavorable opinion. That’s not a big change from the previous time we asked about the former president, in January, when 32% had a favorable opinion and 63% had an unfavorable opinion.
Morning Consult asked voters whether Trump should run for president again, and 58% said no, while 37% said yes. It’s actually the same as the time before you asked, in early March.
It should be noted that impeachment is not the only problem facing Trump. Legal experts consider the ongoing investigation into Trump’s attempt to cancel the election results in Georgia – along with the Justice Department’s investigation into his role in the January 6, 2021 uprising, and the handling of secret documents – to be more serious than the case in New York. York. Additional indictments in the future could damage Trump in many ways.