What the Leopard 2 tank could mean for Ukraine’s fight against Russia

After intense pressure from its allies, Germany looks set to approve the delivery of high-tech Leopard 2 main battle tanks that Ukraine and its biggest Western backer hope will boost Kyiv’s fight against Russian invaders.

Over the weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Berlin would not interfere if Poland – perhaps the most vocal supporter of Ukraine among its EU neighbors – wants to send Leopard 2 tanks from its arsenal across the border to Ukraine. And Germany did not decide to supply the tanks to Ukraine itself, but warned that the implications of such a step should be carefully considered.

Here’s a look at what these tanks mean for Ukraine’s defense against Russian forces.

What is Leopard 2?

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann of Germany, the manufacturer of the Leopard 2, calls it “the world’s main battle tank,” which for almost half a century has combined the aspects of firepower, defense, speed and maneuverability, making it adaptable to different types. combat situation.

The 50-ton tank requires a crew of four and has a range of about 500 kilometers, with a top speed of about 68 kilometers per hour. The earliest version dates back to 1979 and currently there are four main variants. The main weapon is a 120 mm smoothbore gun, and has a fully digital fire control system.

How much can you send to Ukraine?

One of the main attractions of German-made tanks is their number: More than 2,000 have been deployed in more than a dozen European countries and Canada. Overall, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann says more than 3,500 units have been supplied to 19 countries.

According to a recent analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a global think tank based in London, about 350 Leopard 2 – in various versions – have been delivered to Greece, and Poland has about 250 of different types. Finland has 200 in operation or in storage.

For Ukraine’s war against Russia, “it is believed that if the Leopard 2 tanks have a significant impact on the battle, about 100 tanks will be needed,” wrote the analyst of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Ukraine’s defense minister wants 300 tanks, and some EU leaders support him.

“We need a fleet of 300 tanks,” said Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn on Monday in Brussels, referring to the deployment of Leopards across Europe and the need for “synchronized” weapons – which can operate seamlessly.

How does Ukraine work?

Getting the Leopard into Ukraine’s hands isn’t as easy as rolling it over the border with friends in western Europe. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that three to six weeks of training is required for operations crews and support staff to achieve basic proficiency.

Ralf Raths, director of the Panzer Museum in Munster, Germany, said that experienced Ukrainian tank crews would be able to learn to use the Leopard 2 quickly, and training could be shortened to focus on essential knowledge.

“Do you really need to exploit 100 percent of the potential or is it enough to use 80 percent in half the time? Ukrainians will definitely vote for option B,” he said.

What difference does the tank make to the war effort?

Yohann Michel, a research analyst for defense and military affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the tanks could allow Ukraine to attack in the 11-month conflict that has stalled for months after two Ukrainian counterattacks. areas recaptured by Russian forces for months in the north and south.

“In this type of conflict, it is simply impossible to carry out large-scale attacks without various combat equipment and armored vehicles, and tanks are part of it,” he said. In addition to Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) like the Leopard 2, others include infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers.

The delivery of Western Leopard 2s could help equip Ukraine with the high-caliber ammunition it needs to replace its dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles, opening new avenues for Western firearms supplies to Ukraine, he said.

Raths notes that the Leopard 2 and similar Western tanks are more agile than the T models used by the Russians, which cannot retreat quickly, for example.

“Imagine a boxer who can’t move freely in the ring, but only in one direction,” he said. “Other boxers, who can move in all directions, have a big advantage and that’s how it is with Leopards.”

Still, even Western MBTs are vulnerable to aerial attacks, or anti-tank infantry when in forests and urban areas, highlighting the importance of anti-aircraft and reconnaissance support, said Raths.

With an equal number of tanks on both sides, Leopards 2 and similar tanks could give Ukraine the upper hand, especially given the poor tactical performance of Russian forces during the war, he said.

“Ukrainians are bright through creative, dynamic and often very clean war,” said Raths. “So it’s possible that once the operational offensive of Ukraine begins, Russia will have a real problem to deal with.”

Niklas Masuhr, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Swiss federal polytechnic university ETHZ, based in Zurich, warned that the addition of Leopards to the battlefield would not be “a game-changer or a war-winning technology, as such. .”

“You can’t just deploy a lot of main battle tanks and assume you’re going to win,” he said. “It’s very expensive, but you still have to use it in the right way and integrate all the other military tools that you use,” such as infantry, artillery, air defense, combat engineers and helicopters.

Why did Germany refuse to send tanks?

Germany has the final say on whether Leopard 2s can be delivered – even from the arsenals of other countries – and has been reticent about who to send to Ukraine.

“Obviously, Germany is reluctant to provoke any kind of escalation,” British defense industry analyst Nicholas Drummond told CBC News.

Although Germany has sent a lot of other military equipment to Ukraine, Drummond said, tanks are a sticking point – and Germany prefers not to take the lead in this area.

“And really, if you think about the history and the desire not to be a military state anymore, you can understand this approach,” he said, referring to the country’s general reluctance to provide tanks after the second incident. World War.

The more hawkish Western Allies have increased the pressure on Germany, but the US has also refused to send its powerful M1 Abrams tanks.

What do other countries provide?

The US announced an upcoming new military aid package that will include nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles and at least 50 Bradley armored vehicles – but not Abrams tanks, which US officials say have complex maintenance needs and may not be suitable.

Allies and military analysts said the Leopard 2 is diesel-powered – not driven by jet fuel that powers the M1 Abrams – and is easier to operate than large US tanks, and thus has a shorter training time.

This month Britain announced it would send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, and the Czech Republic and Poland have provided Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukrainian forces. French President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday that he had asked his defense minister to “pursue” the idea of ​​sending some French Leclerc battle tanks to Ukraine.

Although modern western MBTs are superior to their Russian counterparts, donor countries that supply them should prepare for losses, Raths said.

The Leopard 2 “is an offensive weapon that will be thrown into high-intensity combat,” he said. “Vehicles will be destroyed, and people will die in these tanks.”