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Britain and the Netherlands’ plan to help Ukraine acquire F-16 fighter jets has put the United States and some of its closest European allies at odds – again – over what weapons the West should send Kyiv to defend against Russian attacks.
Even if the Biden administration overcomes its long-standing reluctance to provide Ukraine with American-made aircraft, the F-16s will not be used in combat for at least several months, military officials and analysts say. But with no end in sight to the war, the F-16 has become the latest advanced weapon that Ukraine and some of its supporters say they need to deter Russia – in the current conflict and for years to come.
Here’s what the F-16 fighter jet looks like, why Ukraine wants it and why the Biden administration is hesitating.
What is an F-16?
First flown in 1976, the F-16 “Fighting Falcon” is a supersonic fighter jet used by the militaries of 25 countries for air-to-air combat and air-to-ground attacks. It has flown in American conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, the Persian Gulf and in homeland defense missions in US airspace.
The F-16 is built by American defense contractor Lockheed Martin and has manufacturers in Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway — four countries that senior Ukrainian officials say have quietly signaled they are willing to transfer some F-16s to Kyiv.
It’s considered versatile, lightweight and reasonably priced — with a price tag of up to $63 million, depending on the model, according to some estimates. There are approximately 3,000 currently in active military service worldwide, including hundreds in the US Air Force and Navy.
Why does Ukraine want it so much?
The F-16 has offensive and defensive capabilities. In the short term, Ukrainian officials say F-16s and other advanced Western fighter jets are needed to bolster air defenses, with Kyiv’s ground-launched systems already exhausted by Russia’s constant barrage of missiles. They can be launched in minutes and are equipped to shoot down incoming enemy missiles and aircraft.
Without modern fighter jets, “no air defense system will be perfect,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told European leaders gathered for a summit in Reykjavik this week.
Beyond the current conflict, many officials across Europe and in the United States believe the F-16 could be a major deterrent to future aggression against Ukraine by Russia’s vastly superior air force.
Why is the US refusing to deliver?
Training Ukrainian pilots to fly Western jets will take months, and the Biden administration has said it would be better to send weapons that would help Ukraine now in an upcoming counterattack against Russia — a battle many in the West hope will be a turning point in the war. . Senior American officials said this week that the cost of delivering the F-16s would absorb much of the already depleted US war funding.
At a House hearing last month, Celeste A. Wallander, assistant secretary of defense, said the administration was focused on Ukraine’s military needs but also on practicalities. “There is also the issue of timing: What is needed now, is what we are focused on for the war we are facing, what can we deliver in a timely and effective manner?” she said.
He said modern Western fighter jets, like the F-16, were “about eighth on the list” of priorities.
What are the chances that Ukraine will get F-16?
Probably fair to high, according to military officials and analysts. The Biden administration previously held back on several types of advanced weapons for Ukraine — including HIMARS missile launchers, Abrams tanks and Patriot missiles — only to reverse itself under pressure from European allies and Congress.
According to analysts, the most common scenario is that the United States will reissue export licenses to other countries that have F-16s, allowing them to send the jets to Ukraine. Given the cost of each jet, it is likely that the United States will send its own F-16s to Ukraine, although it is not impossible.
If Western allies want to upgrade their aging Soviet-era air fleets with more modern jets, giving them the F-16 is “the most likely outcome,” said Douglas Barrie, a military aviation expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
He also said that it was unlikely that Britain, with its “special relationship” with America, would go ahead with trying to provide the F-16 if the Biden administration was at least on board: “It would be surprising. Mild,” he said.
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