Given the severity of our political, economic and social crisis, the question on the minds of all those who have not given up on South Africa is “what to do?”
Of course, all the polls show that the ANC will fall below 50% in next year’s elections, maybe even 40%, but as examples from municipalities in places like Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Tshwane, eThekwini and Gqeberha have shown, the coalition government is deeply unstable in South Africa. Moreover, it risks promoting a charlatan with minimal popular support into a position of real power.
We first saw this with the failure of Mongameli Bobani’s term as mayor in Gqeberha. We have now seen the beginning of a similar fiasco in Johannesburg where the deal between the ANC and the EFF, of all people, saw Kenney Kunene take control of the city’s transport system. The situation in Johannesburg is, to be honest, funny and dangerous. The biggest city and financial capital cannot be taken seriously with a clown like Kunene in that position.
In eThekwini, we have also seen the toxic results of the agreement between the ANC and the EFF. A new working agreement between the parties in KZN could see the IFP lose power in more than 10 municipalities. This will almost certainly lead to further disruption and dysfunction. The IFP’s politics are conservative, but they are more disciplined than the EFF when it comes to working together in coalition arrangements.
Coalition politics is not necessarily unstable in global terms. In a country like Germany, it creates a stable working alliance. But here, like in India or Italy, it is very unstable. This means that there is no prospect of a long-term plan. This is a disaster in a context where there is already dysfunction in providing and maintaining the most basic municipal services.
Moreover, the ascension of people and parties with minimal support has led to deep cynicism about democracy. This cynicism will be compounded by the rise of corrupt individuals and parties to positions of power, a development that can only continue the destructive forms of kleptocratic politics that erupted under Jacob Zuma.
The framers of the new political system that developed after apartheid envisioned that local government would become the primary site for democratic participation and service delivery. Both aspirations exist in many countries, and there is a real risk, as people turn away from compromised and failed democratic systems, some may fall under the spell of right-wing demagogues, most likely xenophobes.
In EFF
We need a clear path out of this morass. But the immediate prospects are not encouraging, because for the ANC, an alliance with the EFF offers the easiest way to hold power. Of course, this has not been ruled out and there are some senior leaders in the ruling party who want to keep a clear distance from the EFF. Indeed, there are some who have argued forcefully, albeit off the record, that an alliance with the EFF may make short-term sense in terms of gaining or securing municipal control, possibly damaging the ANC’s position in the future. national elections.
Moreover, Julius Malema is a political opportunist par excellence and has a long history of changing positions and allegiances at the drop of a hat. We don’t know what he will do next, or how long he will stay. But we know that they are hungry for power and control over the budget. In view of the affinities of the EFF to the so-called RET faction in the ANC, and the looting of the VBS bank, it is impossible to be naivete about this character’s hunger for power.
We also know that the ANC has the same hunger. In fact, the ANC today is a project that is largely held by this hunger – it exists largely as a patronage machine and may collapse without access to patronage.
Considering the political logic of the alliance between the ANC and the EFF it is clear to elected ANC officials that they want to stay in power. However, it will not be attractive to most ANC members, many of whom hate Julius Malema and the EFF. This could set the ANC’s national leadership on a collision course with local leaders, generating further unrest within the party.
Although Cyril Ramaphosa remains more popular than the ANC itself, he is a failed president. As we now know, they are weak, unable to act decisively and unable to assert authority – even against their enemies.
But he is no Jacob Zuma. He has not set himself up in the don at the head of the political mafia. There is a difference between failing to handle a political mafia and being the head of a political mafia. A rebellion against Ramaphosa from the party’s local structure, a rebellion fueled by the desire to retain office in alliance with the EFF, would be a disaster for the country.
Another period of rank corruption will plunge us into a deep crisis that may take generations to escape. Even if the EFF were only brought into the cabinet after the next national election and not offered the vice presidency, we would still be on the road to an escalating crisis.
What to do?
There is no easy answer to the question “what to do?”. You simply cannot ask people to vote for the ANC to avoid the worse case scenario of a wounded ANC allied with the avaricious EFF.
The ANC has damaged its reputation among most South Africans and is outraged that the tactical choice for the least viable option is simply not feasible.
However, at the same time, there is no credible party in the polls that can represent national aspirations, and no party can win a decisive victory over the ANC. At the moment, it seems highly unlikely that a new and credible force will emerge to offer a credible alternative in time for next year’s elections.
The DA has degenerated into a small ethnic party with a regional power base. Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA has largely stayed out of the media, and media attention is a requirement for electoral success for populist parties. The failure of Cosatu and the SACP to break with the ANC has made it impossible to build left unity and we have no real prospect of a left party on the immediate horizon.
The unfortunate consequence of all this is that we will almost certainly have to live with unstable and corrupt governments, including the worst opportunists and lacking a credible social and economic vision.
We all have a very difficult journey ahead of us over the next few years. The only way to regain hope is to build a credible party with the prospect of winning more than 50% of the vote at the next election. The only way to get in, is for many South Africans to enter the political arena, find a leader they can trust, avoid egos and petty rivalries, draw a clear line against corruption and against all kinds of opportunists, and work to build a political party that is viable, ideally one on the liberal side of the spectrum and the other on the left.
Most South Africans are decent people who want the best for the country. Now we must start building a new electoral project that can give hope to the polite and often silent majority. The road ahead will not be easy but if ordinary people do not face the challenges, our backwardness will only get worse.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy or position Mail & Guardians.