The US and China are likely to go to war over Taiwan by 2025, a senior American military officer has warned.
U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan outlined some of the circumstances that would prompt Chinese president Xi Jinping to attack Taiwan in a memo sent Friday to the head of the Air Mobility Command, which he heads.
“I hope I’m wrong. My gut tells me we will go to war in 2025. Xi secures a third term and sets up a war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential election is in 2024 and that will give Xi a reason. The United States presidential election is in 2024 and will give Xi a confused America. Xi’s team, reasons, and opportunities are all aligned for 2025,” Minihan wrote in the memo, first reported by NBC News.
As head of the Air Mobility Command, Minihan oversees the Air Force’s transport and refueling fleet. In the memo, he urged personnel to “consider their personal affairs” and be more aggressive about training.
“If you’re comfortable with your training approach,” he writes, “you’re not taking enough risks.” He directed the airmen to “fire the clip at the 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant death is paramount.”
“Aim for the head,” he added.
China’s massive military exercises
“These comments are not representative of the department’s views on China,” a US defense official told Reuters in response to the memo.
China considers Taiwan its own, but the latter is an independent democracy and has never been under Beijing’s control. In recent years, China has flown a variety of larger warplanes near Taiwan, including a large-scale exercise that took place when US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August.
It has also increased its military presence in the South China Sea, including at bases built atop reefs that form artificial islands in disputed waters. Some of the reefs are claimed by the Philippines, where President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. this month called US-China tensions over Taiwan “very, very worrying for us,” adding that he expected Manila’s military ties with America to deepen.
If China invades Taiwan
In November, Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned of the economic impact if China invades Taiwan and seizes its semiconductor industry, which America “totally and totally depends on” for computer chips. “If we lose access to Taiwanese semiconductors, the hit to US GDP could be on the order of 5% to 10%,” he said. “It was the Great Depression straight away.”
Bill Gates called China’s rise a “big win for the world” earlier this week, warning, “I think the US mentality now toward China, and what it’s responding to, is a loser mentality.” He added that the current hawkishness towards China in the US could be “steady in a very negative way.”
The op-ed was published on The Wall Street Journal, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Navy Seth Cropsey also warned of a possible war with China over Taiwan. Like Minihan, he pointed to Taiwan’s 2024 election. He noted that Taiwan’s vice president, Lai Ching-te, a fierce supporter of Taiwanese independence, took over as chairman of the ruling party last week.
“China will now almost certainly seek to interfere in Taiwan’s 2024 election in an attempt to prevent Mr. Lai from winning the presidency,” Cropsey wrote. “If they win, Beijing can quickly attack.”
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