An F-22 Raptor fighter jet that flew from Virginia to South Carolina on Friday and shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon in a missile attack brought high drama to the latest crisis in US-China relations.
But the hope of stabilizing the rocky relationship has been punctured after the balloon – which Beijing insists is a “civilian unmanned aircraft” collecting meteorological data – flew over North America in the week that the US secretary of state Antony Blinken had prepared for. went to China to meet President Xi Jinping.
Blinken canceled his visit on Friday, saying the balloon, which had been terrorizing Americans during its flight across the country, had violated US sovereignty. In a rare apology, Beijing expressed its “regret” and said the meteorological balloon went astray due to high winds. The US rejected the explanation, saying it was clearly a spy balloon.
As a US navy ship sailed off the coast of South Carolina to recover debris for analysis, Beijing said the use of force was a “clear reaction and a violation of international conventions”.
Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at Germany’s Marshall Fund, said the Biden administration had concluded that China was engaging in “hostile acts” and that its influence on the relationship “should not be underestimated”.
“The window of opportunity to put China-US relations ‘back on the path of steady development’, which Biden and Xi agreed to do in Bali, may have been missed,” he said, referring to a meeting of leaders held at the G20 in November.
One person familiar with US government thinking said China had “completely undermined” efforts to set a “floor” in the relationship.
“When China is clearly damaging in a visceral way to the American people . . . it’s really damaging to what Blinken is doing,” the person said. While the US is committed to trying to calm relations and advance common global interests, it will “take two to tango” for that, people said. “Our goals remain the same. . . but we need to see sincerity.”
Evan Medeiros, a former top White House adviser on Asia, said the two countries were currently in “football territory”, meaning it was unclear how things would play out but would depend on Beijing’s next move.
“They are contrite because they are obviously at fault, but if they now play the anger card, we will enter very controversial ground,” said Medeiros.
One question that may suggest how China will respond is whether Xi approves of the mission or not. In 2011, the US believed that Chinese president Hu Jintao was unaware that the PLA had tested a stealth fighter just hours before meeting with US defense secretary Robert Gates.
People familiar with the administration’s thinking said the U.S. was unaware that Xi was aware of the mission.
Some experts believed the remorse that came out of China on Friday suggested that Xi had been caught. One theory is that the Chinese president is unlikely to approve the mission at this time because he is on a charm offensive to attract business back to China and needs to secure better relations with Washington.
Dennis Wilder, a former top CIA China analyst, said the incident could lead to greater tensions, especially if Washington confronts Beijing with ironclad evidence. “There is a danger of more aggressive Chinese surveillance of US surveillance flights that fly daily over the East and South China Seas, increasing the possibility of accidental collisions.”
Blinken said the balloon flight in the US had “undermined the substantive discussions we had prepared” during the visit.
But Chinese officials have been skeptical about the US willingness to take such measures, especially after Washington recently agreed to more technology controls aimed at China and struck a joint deal with Manila.
The ballooning episode also comes as Chinese officials are pushing for a visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican lawmaker. The PLA launched its largest-ever island-wide exercise in August after Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.
“If McCarthy visits Taiwan, everything goes back to zero,” said one former Chinese diplomat.
In Washington, Biden is under pressure from Republicans to shoot down the balloon before it reaches the Atlantic. The U.S. has not said whether the balloon sent information back to China in real time during the flight or whether the PLA had to retrieve the balloon to access any intelligence it collected.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, said the situation was poisoned by members of Congress. “The balloon issue is being played by hawkish members of Congress to stop Biden from gradually improving relations with China,” Wu said.
Wu argued that the US would have acted “earlier” if it was indeed a spy craft. US officials said the balloons were not shot down on land to avoid potential casualties on the ground and said they had obtained intelligence while flying over the US.
Medeiros said that while China has been gauged by its response, much will depend on whether Xi comes under pressure as Chinese citizens watch videos of the incident.
“Maybe Xi Jinping will change his tune and feel the pressure to respond decisively. . . Then we’re off to the races,” he said.
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