high unemployment and lack of opportunities for young people can be a massive drag on the economy, but also one of the biggest recruitment drivers for extremist groups and terrorists, a new report has found.
Even before COVID-19, global youth had a harder time than others when it came to finding work, with 20% of 15- to 24-year-olds in developing countries on average not working or in school in 2019, according to the IMF. In 2015, the World Bank predicted that while one billion young people will enter the labor market in the next decade, less than half will be successful.
It turns out that having few opportunities to find work and secure a livelihood is also the biggest reason people decide to join extremist groups, according to a new report from the United Nations Development Programme.
The report, released Tuesday, found that lack of job opportunities was the most common reason for joining extremist organizations, informing 25% of enlistment decisions. The second most common was following friends or family, with 22%, followed by religious ideals, with 17%.
The UN conducted around 2,200 interviews with recruiters and former members of extremist organizations in eight countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan. Women make up about a quarter of the total.
“In many countries, where there is a lack of income, a lack of opportunities for work and livelihoods, true desperation forces people to take opportunities with anyone who offers them,” UNDP administrator Achim Steiner said in a video statement on Tuesday.
Terrorism unemployment risk
One of the bright spots to emerge from the pandemic is the reduction in terrorist activity around the world. Deaths from terror attacks are set to drop by 1.2% in 2021, while the number of terror-free countries is the highest since 2007, according to last year’s Global Terrorism Index, a terrorism tracker published by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). ), think tanks.
But these gains could be reversed if high unemployment continues to drive recruits into the hands of extremist groups, as global unemployment rates have risen over the past few years, especially among youth.
The pandemic and the slow economy in developing countries have led to unemployment among young people, with the share of unemployed youth exceeding 23% in August to the highest level in 15 years, according to the International Labor Organization.
High youth unemployment comes with economic consequences for any country. Youth unemployment can leave “scars” for life, as people become saddled with low wages, reduced opportunities, and worse health conditions. In the long run, high youth unemployment can also drag down the country’s economic growth.
The impact of unemployment on extremism has been high in recent years, according to a UN report. The number of recruits citing job opportunities as the main reason for joining extremist organizations has increased by 92% since 2017, when the previous UNDP report on unemployment and terror was published.
As unemployment rises, people cannot rely on the government and their savings to meet their needs. Nearly half of the UN study’s respondents said there had been a “tipping point” in the past, such as the death or arrest of a family member, that created a tipping point and provided an opening for extremist groups.
“The geopolitical dimension should not surprise anyone,” Steiner said. “This is part of this phenomenon when countries are basically unable to provide the rule of law and provide national security. Then the opportunity for other actors to be part of this drama grows rapidly.
While terrorism worldwide has declined in recent years, extremist and violent activity has become more concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, the UN report focuses. The Sahel, a region of 10 countries from East to West that separates the Sahara from the savannah of southern Africa, accounts for nearly 50% of global terrorism deaths, according to the IEP. The think tank called the region a “center of terrorism” because of its high population growth, weak governance, scarce economic prospects, and persistent drought.
Reversing the trend of high unemployment and extremism starts with rebuilding trust between citizens and governments, the UN says. Most recruits said they didn’t trust the government when they joined, while the report found that an extra year of school reduced the likelihood of joining an extremist group by 13%.
“Security-driven counterterrorism responses are often costly and minimally effective,” Steiner said. “The social contract between the state and citizens must be revived to address the root causes of violent extremism.”
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