Ukrainians Were Likely Behind Kremlin Drone Attack, U.S. Officials Say

U.S. officials said a drone attack on the Kremlin earlier this month was likely orchestrated by one of Ukraine’s special military or intelligence units, the latest in a series of covert actions against Russian targets that have alarmed the Biden administration.

US intelligence agencies do not know which unit carried out the attack and it is unclear whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky or top officials were aware of the operation, although some officials believe Mr Zelensky was not.

The agency obtained a preliminary assessment in part through intercepted communications in which Russian officials blamed Ukraine and other communications in which Ukrainian officials said they believed their country was responsible for the attack, in which two drones were flown on May 3 into the Kremlin, causing little . destruction.

US officials said the level of confidence that the Ukrainian government directly authorized the Kremlin’s drone strikes was “low” but that was because intelligence agencies did not yet have specific evidence identifying which Ukrainian government officials, units or operatives were involved.

The attack appeared to be part of a series of operations that made officials in the United States – Ukraine’s largest supplier of military equipment – uncomfortable. The Biden administration is concerned about the risk that Russia will blame US officials and retaliate by expanding the war beyond Ukraine.

American spy agencies are seeing an emerging picture of a confederation of Ukrainian units capable of conducting limited operations inside and outside of Russia, using their own personnel or partners working under their direction. Some of these missions could be carried out with little, if any, oversight from Mr. Zelensky, officials said.

In addition to the drone strikes, US officials have said they believe Ukraine is responsible for the killing of the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist, the killing of a pro-Russian blogger and several attacks on Russian cities near the border with Ukraine. the latest that happened there.

American officials also see the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline – which carries natural gas from Russia to Europe – as a pro-Ukrainian operation whose ties to the Ukrainian government have yet to be determined.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence, described the assessment broadly but would not share details of the intercepts. Representatives for the White House, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

Even though the drone strikes caused little damage, they undermined the sense of security and invincibility the Kremlin is trying to project in Moscow despite the chaos wrought by the war in Ukraine.

The ability of US intelligence agents to assign responsibility for attacks on Russian targets has been complicated by the way Ukraine organizes its security services, which have secret, overlapping and sometimes competing responsibilities.

For example, the Security Service of Ukraine, the Main Directorate of Intelligence and the Ukrainian military each have their own special forces unit.

These operate with varying degrees of professionalism and oversight, and they sometimes compete for resources and attention in the Ukrainian system. U.S. officials aren’t sure how closely, if at all, the units coordinate their activities with one another, either by design — as part of a compartmentalized system to prevent Russian moles from learning about their operations — or because of mistrust between the services. or both.

Some US officials initially believed that the Kremlin drone strikes may have been carried out by the Russian government in a “false flag” operation designed to provide Moscow with a pretext for escalating the conflict.

But after the attack, the United States intercepted communications in which Russian officials were heard discussing the incident and the findings of Moscow’s preliminary investigation into the incident. In those internal discussions, Russian officials appeared shocked by the drone intrusion and blamed Ukraine. US officials said this intelligence helped convince them that the attack was not carried out by Russia.

“Looking at how the Kremlin responded to my suggestion this was an embarrassment and a surprise for them, and not a deliberate false flag,” said Dara Massicot, a military analyst at RAND, referring to the drone strikes. “The attack also undermined the perception of Moscow’s airspace surveillance capabilities and that the Kremlin is safe – this is an important perception that we want to protect.”

The United States also intercepted Ukrainian conversations in which officials said they believed their country was responsible for the attack. But the officials seem to have no idea who in the Ukrainian system had planned it or carried it out.

US officials have said some Ukrainian covert operatives work independently and without direct supervision from Mr Zelensky or his top representative. Officials said they did not believe Mr Zelensky was involved in the entire covert operation, and were unclear about what he knew beforehand.

However, American officials said they suspected that Mr Zelensky and his top aides had set the parameters of the secret campaign, making decisions about who and what to target to the security services and their operatives. By doing so, Mr. Zelensky and his top aides could deny knowing about him.

US officials have repeatedly warned Ukraine against carrying out high-profile attacks on Russia, citing the risk of escalation. They also largely underestimated the effectiveness of the attack, which they saw as a distraction from the most important battle: Kyiv’s campaign against Russian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine.

US officials have also publicly denied enabling or encouraging cross-border attacks and have said they do not support the use of American equipment in such operations. The Biden administration does not want Moscow to think that the United States is involved in the attack.

The administration’s fear that Russia would use nuclear weapons, or escalate the conflict outside of Ukraine, has subsided, at least for now, and Ukrainians continue to conduct covert operations on Russian soil despite US reservations.

While the covert attacks appear to have had little impact so far on the conflict in Ukraine, they show Kyiv’s ability to penetrate into Russia. U.S. officials say the goal of the operation is to bolster Ukrainian morale and destroy the aura of invulnerability that surrounds President Vladimir V. Putin.

Ukrainian military leaders are sometimes reluctant to share information with the United States about their war plans, worried that Russian spies or others will learn about them, making it harder for Ukraine to surprise its enemies. Ukrainians have been particularly strict about covert operations.

The drone attack on the Kremlin took place in the early hours of May 3, a few days before Russia celebrates Victory Day, marking Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.

The first drone caused a small fire; The second tower exploded when the two men examined the roof for damage caused by the first, but they did not seem to be hurt. Russian officials said the drone was intercepted and destroyed before it could cause any injuries.

A New York Times analysis of video of the attack showed the drone had a wingspan of about eight feet. American officials believe the two drones were launched from close range, in or near Moscow. The drone, according to a senior military official, carries a limited explosive charge, which suggests the detonation in the Kremlin is more than a real threat.

Russian officials were quick to publicize the incident and say it was a Ukrainian attempt to assassinate Mr Putin. Russia has promised retaliatory measures and has hit Ukraine with regular missile launches, although it is unclear whether the escalation was in direct response to the drone strike.

On the day of the drone strike, Mr Zelensky publicly denied responsibility, saying Ukraine was fighting on its own territory, and was saving weapons for Ukraine’s defense rather than an attack on Moscow. “We are not attacking Putin,” he said.

A shadowy network of Russian partisan groups claimed responsibility for several attacks, including an attack on the Kremlin. But U.S. intelligence agencies have found no evidence that the group was responsible for the operation, and some U.S. intelligence officials are unsure whether any anti-Putin resistance forces exist in Russia.

Christian Triebert, Riley Mellen and Michael Schwirtz contribute reports.