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Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday ordered his armed forces to observe a unilateral 36-hour ceasefire in Ukraine this weekend for the Orthodox Christmas holiday, the first ceasefire step in the nearly 11-month war.
Putin does not appear to have made the cease-fire order conditional on Ukrainian agreement to follow it, and it is unclear whether hostilities will stop along the 1,100-kilometer front line or elsewhere. Ukrainian officials have previously dismissed Russian peace moves as a time to gather troops and prepare for additional attacks.
While not necessarily the last official word back from Kyiv, the adviser to the president of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted below the latest move that the Russian troops “must leave the occupied territories – only then will they have a ‘temporary ceasefire.’ Stay hypocritical to yourself.”
At various points during the war that began on February 24, 2022, Russian authorities have ordered local and limited ceasefires to allow for the evacuation of civilians or other humanitarian purposes. Thursday’s order is the first time Putin has directed his troops to observe a ceasefire across Ukraine.
“Based on the fact that many citizens who profess Orthodoxy live in the conflict zone, we invite the Ukrainian side to declare a ceasefire and give them the opportunity to attend services on Christmas, as well as on the Nativity of Christ,” said Putin’s order, addressed to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and published on the Kremlin website.
Putin ‘trying to get oxygen,’ Biden said
US President Joe Biden declined to comment directly but said at the White House on Thursday it was “interesting” that Putin was preparing to bomb hospitals, nurseries and churches over Christmas and New Year. “I think they’re trying to get oxygen,” he said.
Putin acted on the advice of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, who proposed a ceasefire from noon on Friday until midnight Moscow time. The Orthodox Church, which uses the ancient Julian calendar, celebrates Christmas on January 7 – rather than the Gregorian calendar – although some Christians in Ukraine also mark the holiday on that date.
Podolyak had previously dismissed Kirill’s call as “a cynical trap and an element of propaganda.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had proposed the withdrawal of Russian troops earlier, before December 25, but Russia refused.
Kirill has previously justified the war as part of Russia’s “metaphysical struggle” to prevent the spread of liberal ideology from the West.
‘Shall we believe Russia?’
Independent political analyst Tatyana Stanovaya said Putin’s ceasefire order was intended to make him appear reasonable and interested in peace.
The move “fits Putin’s logic, where Russia acts on the right side of history and fights for justice,” he said.
“We must not forget that in this war, Putin feels like a ‘good man,’ not only doing good for himself and his ‘brother countries’, but also for the world freed from the ‘hegemony’ of the United States,” Stanovaya, the founder of the independent R.Politik think tank, wrote on Telegram.
He also linked Putin’s move to a recent attack by Ukrainian forces in Makiivka that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers. “They really don’t want to get something like that for Christmas,” the analyst said.
On the rainy streets of Kyiv, some questioned Russia’s sincerity in negotiating a ceasefire.
“Are we to believe Russia?” wondered Svitlana Zhereva after Kirill’s proposal. “On the one hand they have given the blessing to fight and kill, and on the other hand they want to present themselves as righteous people who are against blood-spilling. But they must be judged by their actions.”
Erdogan offered to help mediate peace
Putin issued the cease-fire order after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan asked him in a phone call Thursday to implement a “unilateral ceasefire,” according to the Turkish president’s office. The Kremlin said the Russian president “reaffirmed Russia’s openness to serious dialogue” with Ukrainian authorities.
Erdogan also told Zelenskyy later by phone that Turkey is ready to mediate “lasting peace.” Erdogan has repeatedly made these offers, helping broker a deal that allowed Ukraine to export millions of tons of grain, and has facilitated a Ukrainian-Russian prisoner swap.
Russia’s readiness for peace talks comes with the usual preconditions: “Kyiv authorities fulfill their well-known and repeated demands and recognize the reality of the new territory,” the Kremlin said, referring to Moscow’s insistence that Ukraine recognize Crimea as part of Russia and recognize others. illegal territorial gains.
Previous attempts at peace talks have failed due to Russia’s territorial claims, as Ukraine has insisted that Russia withdraw from territory it controls.
NATO sees no change in Moscow’s attitude
Elsewhere, the head of NATO found no change in Moscow’s stance on Ukraine, stressing that the Kremlin “wants a Europe that can control its neighbors.”
“We have no indication that President Putin has changed his plans, his intentions for Ukraine,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in Oslo, Norway.
Individual NATO countries are increasing their military support to Ukraine with increasingly advanced weapons.
In the latest pledge, France’s Defense Ministry said it plans to hold talks with its Ukrainian counterpart about sending armored combat vehicles. The French president said that this will be the first time that these Western-made wheeled tank destroyers have been delivered to the Ukrainian military.
In the United States, Biden said Bradley Fighting Vehicles, medium armored combat vehicles that can serve as troop carriers, could be sent to Ukraine.
As more weapons arrive, the battlefield situation appears to be a stalemate, more and more fighting. During winter, the mobility of troops and equipment is more limited.
In the latest fighting, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, the deputy head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said there were at least five civilians killed and eight wounded across the country by Russian shelling in the previous 24 hours.
Intense fighting has destroyed 60 percent of the eastern city of Bakhmut, Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on Thursday. The Ukrainian defenders appeared to be holding the Russians back.
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