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The announcement that 31 M1 Abrams tanks could reach Ukraine in the fall brings one of America’s most powerful weapons closer to war. But even if the faster-than-expected deliveries won’t reach the battlefield in time to launch an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, Western allies appear unable to provide the weapons that U.S. military officials believe Kyiv needs.
Documents among the leaked classified military estimates of the war show that US military planners believe 253 tanks are needed for the upcoming counterattack. But by the end of February, only 200 had been committed, and 60 were made by Western manufacturers – the type of sophisticated weapons Ukraine had requested.
The documents, from the end of February and the beginning of March, offer a picture of the time of preparation for the counterattack. More weapons and artillery have flowed into Ukraine in the weeks since the estimated date. Still, the documents reveal not only gaps in Ukraine’s arsenal but also the struggle of Western allies to complete deliveries of tanks and other weapons systems.
Here’s a look at the five main weapons promised:
Tanks
Leaked estimates indicate that 140 tanks lined up for the counterattack, more than half of the total, will be upgraded with Soviet-era machines, including some from Ukraine’s current arsenal. A document dated February 28 shows that the three Ukrainian brigades gearing up for the campaign were short of at least twelve tanks each.
The document also shows that 60 Western tanks – from Britain, Canada, Germany, Poland and tank-like reconnaissance vehicles from France – will be sent to Ukraine in April, before the current 31 Abrams tanks will arrive.
Air defense system
This week, Ukraine received its first battery of Patriots, an American-made air defense system considered the most advanced to shoot down fighter jets and cruise missiles. This comes 19 months after Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, said the first to ask for them, and the allies have committed to send only one more.
The United States has delivered Ukraine two air defense systems known as NASAM, and the document states that six more will come from the United States, one from Canada and one from Norway. In addition, Germany recently delivered the second of four IRIS-T systems.
artillery
As of March 1, Ukraine is believed to have only about 9,800 American-supplied 155-millimeter rounds and is expected to run out within days. Over the next 12 days, the US delivered another 30,000 rounds.
But at this point, Ukraine’s appetite for 155-millimeter rounds is virtually unlimited, and ammunition makers in the United States and Europe say it will take years to meet the demand.
Fighter jets
This week, officials said, Slovakia completed the transfer of 13 of its MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, and Poland earlier this month sent at least some of the four promised.
But Ukraine still wants advanced American-made F-16s, which the Biden administration is currently not delivering. Ukrainian lawmakers this week accused the United States of preventing other countries from sending their own F-16s to Kyiv.
Long-range missiles
The Biden administration is also adamant that it will not deploy Ukraine’s long-range Army Tactical Missile System, which can strike targets up to 190 miles away. Kyiv says the missiles could help Ukraine retake Crimea, the Russian peninsula it illegally annexed in 2014, but US officials are concerned the weapons could be used to strike targets inside Russia.
The United States has offered to send munitions known as Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of 90 miles. But it has to be built first, and production of even small batches can take months.
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