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Russia’s claim of victory in the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut suggests that the brutal urban fighting that marked the deadliest battle of the war in Ukraine may be over. But what comes next is unclear.
While Moscow is driving the “Mission Accomplished” moment in its war, Ukraine – even as it emphasizes Bakhmut has not completely fallen – sees an opening to seize the initiative from the outskirts of the city if the Russian forces no longer press forward in the center of the city.
The capture of Bakhmut by Russia would be a powerful symbolic success for Moscow. It will represent the first Ukrainian city that has been captured since Lysychansk last summer, and is a setback for Kyiv, which expended precious ammunition and sent some of the most capable forces to try to thwart the month’s devastating Russian attack on the city. Thousands of troops from both sides are believed to have died in nearly a year of fierce fighting there.
But this city is now in ruins, and controlling it does not necessarily help Moscow towards its larger goal – conquering the entire eastern Donbas region – now that Ukrainian forces have destroyed Russian forces and destroyed the defenses in some areas towards the city. north and south.
“You have to understand, there is nothing,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said of the devastated city, once home to 80,000 people, during a press conference in Hiroshima, Japan, where he appealed for aid and weapons from the world’s largest democracy. rich in the world.
“They destroyed everything,” Mr. Zelensky said. “There are no buildings. Unfortunately, a tragedy, but until now, Bakhmut is only in the heart. There is nothing in this place, only the ground and many dead Russians.
Now that Russia has apparently taken the city, it must continue.
Ukraine, however, plans to make a difficult proposition by raining artillery on Russian forces occupying Bakhmut, according to Ukrainian officials. Military analysts say Moscow’s continued deployment of reinforcements to defend the city could reduce the ability of Russian forces to withstand a broader counteroffensive that Ukraine says is about to begin.
A British defense intelligence assessment there said Moscow has redeployed “up to several battalions to strengthen” the forces in Bakhmut, calling the deployment of soldiers “a notable commitment” to the combat forces heavily stretched Russia in Ukraine.
Among the challenges for Russia is approving the intentions of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of Wagner’s private mercenary company, which is leading the urban fighting. Mr Prigozhin on Saturday declared victory in Bakhmut and said mercenaries would withdraw from the town on Thursday. But military analysts say it is unclear whether Mr. Prigozhin can pull out so abruptly along the hotly contested front line without dire consequences for Russia in the city.
It is also unclear how many Ukrainian troops are still being held and whether Russian reinforcements deployed to Bakhmut will roll in to replace Wagner’s forces or bolster Russia’s faltering defenses on the outskirts of the city.
In recent days, Russian forces clawing their way west through the city have fought through the final neighborhood of high-rise apartment blocks, reaching the expanse of garages, farmhouses and open fields in the west. The Ukrainian military said on Sunday that there were still some buildings in the area.
But even as Kyiv forces withdrew from block-by-block fighting, they brought reinforcements to guard their rear positions, securing roads and supply lines west of Bakhmut. And they focused on attacking Russian positions in the north and south of the city. The battle on May 6 broke the Russian line south of the village of Ivanivske and forced the Russian soldiers into a disorderly retreat.
Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had recently captured high ground on the outskirts of the city, and that the advance would “lead to the enemy’s incident in Bakhmut.”
If the Ukrainian forces can continue their counterattack, then Russia will be on the defensive along almost the entire front line, which stretches for hundreds of miles. For months, Bakhmut was one of the few places in Russia during the war.
Ukraine’s military said on Sunday it had launched an overnight assault on the Russian-held port city of Berdiansk, the latest attempt to target areas it holds in the country’s south ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive. Vladimir Rogov, a Russian occupation official, said a missile landed on the outskirts of the city but there were no casualties, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.
Ukrainian commanders say the whole point in Bakhmut is to slow down the Russian Army in a long battle, kill as many of its soldiers as possible and buy time for Ukraine to prepare and re-prepare – with Western weapons – for a wider counterattack.
A Russian capture of Bakhmut “would mean nothing, really,” predicted Col. Serhiy Hrabsky, commentator on the war for Ukrainian news media. “The Russians have exhausted their offensive capabilities, and that is why they are desperate to claim that they have captured Bakhmut.”
Despite Ukrainian efforts to undermine Russia’s success, Russian state media on Sunday celebrated Bakhmut’s capture.
A segment on the morning news broadcast on Sunday compared the battle of Bakhmut to the Soviet Union’s major victory in World War II. A Russian fighter is shown saying he feels “the same emotions as our grandfathers in Berlin” when Russian troops stormed the city at the end of World War II.
The anchor declared, “Mission accomplished.”
The state-run Channel 1 news broadcast cited statements by President Vladimir V. Putin and the Russian Defense Ministry giving partial credit to Wagner for capturing the city. Channel 1 also showed footage of gunmen described as Wagner fighters shouting, “Bakhmut is ours!”
But even as the news broadcast featured Bakhmut as the top story, there was one person not mentioned: Mr. Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner and a close ally of Mr. Putin who is often at odds with Russia’s military leadership.
Such apparent negligence speaks volumes for how long the Russian propaganda machine will hide from the Russian people any sign of an elite showdown or trouble on the front lines.
The Sunday morning newscast showed extensive aerial footage of the destruction and desolation in Bakhmut but said that Ukrainian forces had destroyed the city itself – an echo of Russia’s false narrative when it captured the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol a year ago.
“They can’t hold the city,” said a journalist on the ground in Bakhmut, referring to Ukrainian forces. “So they’re trying to break it into the ground.”
Peter Baker contributions reported from Hiroshima, Japan, Anton Troyanovski from Berlin and Matthew Mpoke Bigg from London.
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