Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tour of European capitals could bring Ukraine closer to getting fighter jets. That would provide wings to freedom – and a useful updraft for defense companies. They have benefited from Ukraine-related orders: Saab, maker of the Gripen fighter jet, rose 10 percent to narrow sales guidance on Friday.
The Ukrainian president’s campaign to acquire jets faces many obstacles. They are still building the necessary western consensus. The US has so far not talked about the transfer of the widely used F-16, built by Lockheed Martin. The Eurofighter Typhoon, which the UK is thinking of sending, has been developed by BAE in a consortium, so it is likely that there will be agreement from Italy, Spain and Germany.
The operational difficulties are many – from the training required, to the logistics required to run and maintain the fleet, directly into the local area. The Typhoon is not designed to be operated from short or rough runways, as in Ukraine, according to the Royal United Services Institute think tank.
These difficulties may be insurmountable. The political red line on supplying more sophisticated equipment to Ukraine has easily changed. And it is possible to operate the craft in less than optimal conditions – or even send an aircraft that is more suitable for the purpose. Saab’s Gripen jets – especially the old 80 held by Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary – have been touted as a cheaper and more agile option.
It is not yet clear whether Zelensky’s request will succeed. If it does, it will give further impetus to Europe’s rearmament supercycles. But not all aircraft delivered to Ukraine must be replaced with new models. Some may be old aircraft, already scheduled for retirement. And jets are long lead items, taking several years from order to delivery.
The exercise will still be part of the modernization of Europe’s fleet of fighter jets. This is a long-term project. Partner Sash Tusa of the Agency estimates that European air forces will need to acquire up to 350 more fighter jets over the coming decade, on top of existing orders. The cost is likely to be up to €50bn. Zelenskyy’s wing will accelerate this process.
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