“Ukraine can still lose the war – but Russia can’t,” Ian Bremmer told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in Munich.
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Ukraine may lose the war, but Russia cannot win at the geopolitical level, Ian Bremmer, political scientist and president of the Eurasia Group, told CNBC.
“Ukraine can lose this war,” Bremmer told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, but Russia cannot win in NATO because of its “pariah” status, Bremmer said.
“[Russia] will still be cut off, NATO will still expand and for Putin, feeling humiliated, insecure and in a vastly worse geostrategic position than before he attacked, what will he do as the most powerful rogue state in the world? This is a long-term question that goes beyond Ukraine,” Bremmer added.
Bremmer said NATO’s support for Ukraine has been “remarkable” and “more than anyone thought,” with Germany reducing its dependence on Russian energy supplies and the US taking the lead in sending military supplies to Ukraine. But he questioned whether this help would continue.
“Will it be true in 2024, with the upcoming presidential election?” he asked. “We don’t know what’s going to happen there.”
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will continue to have the “attention and cohesion” it has gained from the West in the first year after the Russian invasion, Bremmer noted.
“The answer is that Ukraine can lose. Everyone here should understand that Ukraine can lose this war,” Bremmer said.
So far, the UK, the US and Germany are among the countries that have agreed to equip Ukraine with tanks, but have yet to complete the latest request from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for fighter jets.
“[The war] it’s an existential crisis for Ukraine, it’s an existential crisis for Zelenskyy and his personal family – they’re literally fighting for their lives,” Bremmer said.
