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Exactly where and when Russia will launch its next attack no one can be sure, but Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr Tereshchenko wants to assure that the Russians will regret it.
Tereshchenko, a bearded 50-year-old, is part of Ukraine’s northern defense line, tasked with securing the swampy and forested areas along the border with Belarus and – more importantly – preventing Russian forces from making another attack on the capital. Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
In the days following the Russian invasion last February, troops tried to capture Chernihiv, about 50 kilometers from Tereshchenko’s position, with thousands of soldiers massing in the area.
The Russians were eventually driven back, but not before causing heavy damage to the city and decimating the population.
CBC News visited the complex of trenches and fortifications recently built along the defense line and spoke with soldiers and commanders.
“They [the Russians] they are ready, but we are also ready,” said Tereshchenko.
“It has mining fields, roads are also mined, and so on [armoured] The battalion is ready to respond if something happens on the border. We have a plan for our defense.”
Where and when the Russian army will attack may be the most important question in Ukraine – along with whether Germany will allow the export of Leopard 2 heavy tanks by European countries so that Ukraine can strengthen its defenses and perhaps launch its own counterattack to retake it. a territory occupied by Russia.
Ukrainian military commanders have said they believe the chance of Russia invading through Belarus again is low, but it remains a possibility.
The commander at the border fort was a masked soldier who asked the CBC to use his nickname, Dunai, which is the name of a local river.
“Yes, we are under occupation, but we will not allow this to happen again,” he said.
Along with a network of trenches, tank traps and concrete ramparts, the CBC team also saw several heavy machine nests, but no tanks or other heavy armor. Dunai confirmed that he was there but was not seen for security reasons.
The line of contact between Ukrainian and Russian forces is almost 900 kilometers long, stretching from the Belarusian border to the Kherson region near the Black Sea in the south.
While the line has been more or less static since Ukraine’s re-capture of the city of Kherson and the right bank of the Dnipro River in November, an exception has been noted around the Donbas city of Bakhmut.
It has seen fierce fighting and bloody war with heavy losses on both sides. Russian forces with the Wagner paramilitary group captured the nearby town of Soledar in January, marking Russia’s first victory in months.
But there is a constant and urgent threat recently from Ukrainian officials who are far from Bakhmut, the Kremlin has built a large number of new forces mobilized to try to regain another initiative in the front.
Ukrainian government officials have said they believe Russia is mobilizing between 200,000 and 300,000 troops in the fall, with about half of them in reserve for an attack in early 2023.
Across the long front line, the concern was that a concentrated Russian attack in a single sector could overwhelm Ukrainian positions.
“Russia is setting the stage for what they believe [will be a] attack Ukraine,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dymtro Kuleba told CBC News in an interview last week.
He noted that it has become a race to see if Ukraine can regain control with enough Western weapons to launch a counterattack before Russia strikes.
“So our job, and we appreciate every bit of support that comes from our partners, is to win this race,” said Kuleba.
On Saturday, leaders in the Russian-held part of Zaporizhzhia announced what they said was the start of an “offensive”.
On Sunday, he followed up with another statement that took “ground and a more advantageous position,” according to Reuters.
An unverified report from a Russian military blogger said Kremlin forces were on the outskirts of the Ukrainian-held city of Orikhiv, about 50 kilometers from the city of Zaporizhzhia.
In response, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense released a video of what it called a Ukrainian attack on Russian tank and infantry positions along with a statement denying Russian advances.
Oleksiy Danilov of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine also posted a warning on social media that along with the new military offensive, Russia will intensify its “informational attacks”.
“Noxious information gas is being released, which includes lies, manipulation, falsehoods and disinformation,” wrote Danilov.
Although Vladimir Putin officially declared all of Zaporizhzhia to be an official part of Russia, about 30 percent, including the main city, remains under Ukrainian control.
The area is also home to Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, in the Russian-controlled city of Enerhodar.
Thus, Zaporizhzhia is also often mentioned as the main location for Ukrainian counter-attacks this spring.
The city’s population suffered greatly during the war, suffering multiple Russian missile attacks and heavy civilian casualties.
CBC News visited a humanitarian aid station in Zaporizhzhia and met several families who recently left the Russian-controlled zone but still have relatives on the other side.
“My husband stayed there, in the front row,” said a woman named Nadia from the village Stepnohirsk. “He lives in our house now and feeds the dog.
She said that while rejecting the Ukrainians, her husband told her that the situation seemed to be getting stronger.
“It’s booming. Every day. Every minute, it’s just booming from artillery. It’s bound to get worse, for sure.”
Another woman, Olena Bryk from the village of Kamianske, said that as Russian attacks increased, she did not think there would be many.
“I don’t trust the attackers. We are also bright,” he said. “And the world is helping us.”
Wherever Russia tries to regain the initiative on the battlefield, the question of whether Ukraine will use Western heavy armor remains an important one.
The country’s leadership aggressively lobbied Western governments to hand over dozens, if not hundreds, of German-made Leopard 2 tanks, but Germany had to authorize the transfer.
However, the anticipated announcement at Friday’s meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group in Ramstein never came, and since then, Ukrainian leaders have been fuming, privately and publicly.
Tanks are important for the life of Ukraine: MP
“How hard do we have to scream or how persuasive to get what we need to win this war?” Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik told CBC News in an interview.
Rudik, who leads the opposition Holos party in parliament, has been an outspoken advocate for Ukraine’s integration into Europe.
He said he believed Vladimir Putin’s forces were ready to launch a major offensive and that the Leopard 2 tanks were essential to Ukraine’s survival.
“We have to be prepared for Putin and his forces to try to have some victory, any victory. He has to show his people something.”
Speaking on a Ukrainian-language YouTube channel, Ukrainian military commentator and former air force colonel Oleh Zhdanov said he was confident that the German government would approve the transfer of the tanks.
“Right now, we have an Image/Mediasmall delay,” Zhdanov said. “I think next month, Scholtz [the German chancellor] will be sure.”
Many Ukrainians fear that this is their only chance to expel Russian forces from their territory.
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