Sales of new electric cars will overtake diesel models in the UK for the first time in 2022, but overall new car sales are down to their lowest level in three decades, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Global supply chain disruptions – ranging from semiconductor shortages to Covid-related Chinese plant shutdowns – meant carmakers were unable to meet demand, leading to the worst year for UK sales since 1992.
Some 1.61 million cars were registered in Britain last year, 2 percent down on 2021 and even lower than the 1.63 million registered in 2020, when the industry was forced to shut down during the pandemic, according to SMMT annual figures published on Thursday.
British carmakers “never recovered from the effects of the pandemic in 2020”, said Mike Hawes, chief executive of SMMT.
“Manufacturers are really struggling to make vehicles in the numbers they need,” he said. “The complexity of global manufacturing has taken its toll on the industry in the past year.”
Sales of electric cars will increase by more than a quarter in 2022, accounting for 16.6 percent of sales, while demand for diesels will fall by less than 10 percent. Battery electrics “are now the second most popular electric powertrain among UK new car buyers, displacing diesel for the first time”, Hawes said.
Diesel used to account for more than half of car sales in the UK, but fell out of favor after the 2015 Volkswagen emissions scandal – in which carmakers installed software on vehicles that produced confusing results for diesel emissions tests – and with the introduction of rules in cities such as as London specifically penalizes diesel vehicles.
But Hawes says diesel is still “hard to beat” for motorists who regularly travel long distances.
Petrol cars remained the most popular choice for UK buyers last year, accounting for more than half of sales. Hybrid models account for 11.6 percent of the market and plug-in hybrids account for 6.3 percent.
Electric vehicles “are still less than 2 percent of vehicles on the road, so there is still a long way to go before we have decarbonised road transport”, added Hawes, although one in three new cars sold in December was pure electric, a figure inflated by the last delivery of Teslas from China for a month.
New rules come into effect next year that determine what percentage of each automaker’s sales must include zero-emission vehicles. The rate is expected to start at 22 percent in 2024, and rise to 100 percent in 2030.
But regulations defining the precise definition of those targets — such as hybrid models, and whether automakers without electric models for sale can join others to meet those targets — have been delayed until at least the summer.
Hawes said the industry “first and foremost needs clarification” for manufacturers to make adjustments to comply with the rules. He also reiterated his call for more charging infrastructure, which he says still prevents some motorists from making the switch to electric.
SMMT expects overall sales to rise by about 15 percent this year as manufacturers are able to make more cars for customers on waiting lists, despite an improving economic outlook.
long delays, with motorbikes waiting for months or even more than a year for some models, will offer the industry a “cushion” against the fall in overall demand, he added.
Changes in China’s Covid-19 policy could mean unexpected factory closures and is one of the “signs that things are starting to ease”, Hawes said. “After three difficult years, we hope this is a year of recovery.”