An agreement between the UK and the EU on post-Brexit trade rules in Northern Ireland appears close.
Here are three areas at stake in the compromise:
– Northern Ireland –
Fixing the Northern Ireland protocol is seen as very important by political leaders in Belfast and London, as well as Brussels and even Washington.
Brexit has fueled tensions in the British province, which shares its only land border with the EU and has a troubled history.
The protocol aims to prevent any customs procedures taking place at the border with Ireland, a flash point in Northern Ireland’s thirty-year conflict over British rule.
The province remains part of the EU’s single market and customs union, requiring oversight from European courts and ordering checks on goods arriving from mainland Britain.
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But pro-British unionists argue that weakens the place of Northern Ireland in the UK, and as part of the vehement opposition to it, has collapsed devolved power-sharing.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has vowed not to return until the protocol is canceled or radically overhauled, leaving Northern Ireland without the government it deposed over the past year.
The political instability followed more than a week of unrest over the pact in 2021, mostly in union territories, which left 88 police officers dead.
There have also been several violent incidents in recent months blamed on dissident republicans seeking reunification with Ireland.
As recently as last week, a senior off-duty officer was shot dead in what police said was a “terrorist-related” attack by a splinter group, the New IRA.
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The situation has upset locals and those further afield, with the United States – which played a key role in securing the 1998 peace deal – particularly calling for a compromise on trade post-Brexit.
However, it is not clear whether the DUP will accept the expected deal and agree to continue power-sharing.
Pro-Irish Sinn Fein, which became the largest party in the assembly after winning last May’s election, cannot form an executive without the DUP’s participation.
– EU-UK relations
Arguments over the protocol have dogged relations between the UK and the EU since Brexit and appear to be hindering wider cooperation between the two sides.
The British government has introduced legislation that, if passed, would allow it to unilaterally withdraw parts of the pact.
That has angered the EU and is seen as risking more trade wars, which could prove damaging on either side of the Channel but especially in recession-threatening Britain.
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Progress on issues such as London accessing billions of pounds of funding from the bloc’s Horizon Europe research program remains at a standstill while protocol negotiations are ongoing.
The UK hopes the current deal can unlock much-needed cash.
With the war in Ukraine renewing the focus on defense and security cooperation in Europe, both sides seem eager to put the new Brexit acrimony behind them and collaborate more closely in the region.
The threat posed by China and the shared challenge of climate change are also seen as closer ties if the protocol squabble can be resolved.
– British politics, economics –
Britain has been wracked by political and economic instability since the 2016 EU referendum, with the country strongly divided for several years between the “Leave” and “Remain” camps.
Former prime minister Boris Johnson used fatigue at the domestic political deadlock over Brexit to help win an 80-seat majority in December 2019, vowing to “get Brexit done”.
But instead of concluding the matter during the British divorce, the agreed deal – especially the protocol – has left a lot of unfinished business for the eventual successor, Rishi Sunak.
With the UK economy predicted to enter recession this year and worse than the rest of the G7, Brexit is seen by the majority of Britons as bad and wrong, according to polls.
Trade with Europe has fallen sharply and exports to countries outside the bloc have yet to make up for the shortfall.
Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc and political uncertainty have also led to inward investment.
This leaves Sunak with a political and economic challenge to make Brexit better and look more successful.
The deal to overhaul the protocol could be described as a key step, as he prepares to contest an expected general election next year against a resurgent Labor opposition.
But he faces an immediate challenge in selling any deal to a fractured Conservative party, with the threat of a devastating revolt by eurosceptics and those seeking to undermine his government.