A dove flies in front of the Spasskaya Kremlin tower (L) and Saint Basil’s cathedral (C) in Moscow on March 1, 2023.
Kirill Kudryavtsev AFP Getty Images
The initial U.S. intelligence suggesting that China was considering providing Russian lethal aid to fight in Ukraine was obtained from Russian government officials, according to one current and former U.S. official familiar with the intelligence.
U.S. officials then spent weeks corroborating information from other intelligence sources, current and former officials said, and with allies who also brought additional information.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
Multiple intelligence threads indicating that China is considering providing lethal aid to Russia, including munitions and artillery, have caused alarm among Biden administration officials, especially since such a move by Beijing could change the dynamics of the war for Moscow.
“A Russian military supported or aided by an infusion of Chinese weapons and platforms is more lethal and more capable,” a senior administration official said. “This will not be good for the Ukrainian people.”
Top administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director Williams Burns, publicly expressed confidence in the intelligence and warned China against providing military aid that could harm Russia.
China has denied that it is considering sending lethal aid to Russia, calling the US accusations “disinformation.”
US officials noted that they have not seen evidence of a move or decision from China to take such steps.
.At a White House press briefing Thursday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was asked how seriously the administration thought China could send weapons to Russia.
“We really don’t know,” Kirby said.
Kirby added that the U.S. believes that China has not gone off the table, but also has seen no evidence that Beijing is moving forward to send its lethal aid to Moscow.
The NSC declined to comment when contacted for this story.
Early intelligence was unclear about the specific systems or equipment China was considering for Russia, including whether it could provide drones beyond those already commercially available, officials familiar with the intelligence said.
“There are varying degrees of confidence in how serious China is about this,” said a second senior US official.
In an interview Sunday on CBS News’ “Face the Nation,” Burns acknowledged that the decision to release the information publicly was intended to prevent China from deciding to give Russia lethal assistance.
“We believe that the Chinese leadership is considering providing lethal equipment,” Burns said.
He added: “Secretary Blinken and the President have thought it important to explain what the consequences are.”
There has been some discussion within the administration about declassifying and publicly releasing some intelligence, but officials have decided not to do so, at least for now, because of the sensitivity of the sources used to gather the information and because of the administration’s intent to send a message. to China does not supply Russia with the aid of death, now, it seems to have worked.
US allegations that China is considering providing Russia with military aid could be deadly as Beijing unveils a proposed peace plan to end the war in Ukraine.
President Joe Biden and other top US officials say the proposal is one-sided and only benefits Russia. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said China’s involvement in the potential peace plan was “not bad.”
Some Biden administration officials see the new signal that China may withdraw from the war in Ukraine, and participate in one way or another, as a power effort to undermine the US after recent moves to increase alliances in Asia. – Pacific region.
Other officials cautioned that China has not yet made a decision on whether to become more involved and is still effectively taking the same position it has held since the start of the war a year ago.
“There are issues that we know we’re not going to see directly,” a senior US official said of the Biden administration’s relationship with China. “What we want to do, especially when it comes to Ukraine, we want to be one of the areas that can be seen.”
In other words, the official said, one of the goals of the Biden administration is to let China know that “it’s not okay for Russia to kill innocent Ukrainians, and nobody should help them.”