U.S.-China relations just got more fragile

BEIJING – US-China relations appear increasingly fragile, analysts say, after China’s current ballooning descent forced US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to postpone a trip to Beijing indefinitely.

While the alleged spy balloon poses a real threat, analysts point to a level of public attention that hinders how leaders can act to achieve stability. The two presidents met for the first time in the Biden administration about three months ago, when Blinken’s planned trip to China was first announced.

“The new US-China détente is now in a critical state, if not completely dead, and future détente will also be vulnerable to derailment by domestic politics,” Gabriel Wildau, managing director at Teneo, said in a note.

“The main question is why the Biden administration decided to announce this balloon but not before [reported] one,” Wildau said. “The answer remains uncertain, but we suspect that unlike the previous Chinese balloon, US officials believe that this one will definitely be found by the public even without official confirmation.”

A US government representative did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the decision to disclose the balloon’s existence to the public.

The US Department of Defense said US Air Force fighters shot down the balloon over the weekend, after deciding not to do so while the balloon was on US soil. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced a classified China briefing with all senators will be held on February 15.

“Schumer said that while we know that the balloon is in public view, China is trying to maneuver the balloon to leave the U.S. as soon as possible,” Senate Democrats said in a press release on Sunday.

China’s Ministry of National Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs both called the US move to shoot down the balloon an “overreaction.”

“What the US has done has greatly affected and undermined the efforts and progress of both sides to stabilize China-US relations since the Bali meeting,” said Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng, according to a public statement released Monday in Chinese, translated by CNBC.

The foreign ministry said in multiple statements that the “airship” was mainly for weather research and “deviated far from its planned course” due to winds and forces beyond China’s control.

While discussions about the balloons – including memes – have circulated on Chinese social media, the official Chinese mouthpiece has been more muted so far. A nightly news report broadcast by the state on Sunday did not mention that the balloon was shot down.

“Both sides understand the challenges,” said Dali Yang, a political science professor at the University of Chicago. “We’re getting public communication and there’s probably some regret on both sides about this situation.”

“I get the feeling that there is really an effort to make up for lost time by China,” Yang said. “This only means that the Chinese leadership will be more restrained and will not want to let this balloon situation get out of balance.”

In the last few days, both countries have emphasized the need for communication, and done at a high level.

Blinken spoke Friday with Wang Yi — China’s former foreign minister who was recently promoted to a more senior diplomatic role — according to reports from both countries.

While Blinken said it would be inappropriate to visit Beijing in “clear violation of US sovereignty and international law,” he will travel to the Chinese capital as soon as conditions permit, according to a statement from a US State Department spokesperson. Ned Price.

However, analysts say too much has changed for the situation to easily return to where it was before the balloon incident.

“Last week’s Balloon Crisis will have a significant impact on bilateral relations and certainly US public opinion, political debate and policy towards it [China]Roman Schweizer, managing director for aerospace and defense at Cowen and Company’s Washington Research Group, said in a Sunday report.

“Countries spy on each other – on enemies and friends, using all sorts of methods and technologies. Getting caught is a risk,” said Schweizer. “The Balloon Crisis may embarrass the PRC so they will retaliate, change their narrative or, simply put, make the US look bad.”

On the US side, he expects the Biden administration to be “pressed harder.” He pointed to the administration’s export controls targeting Chinese technology and potential restrictions on US investment in China, as well as recent developments from the House Select Committee on China.

In the first major bipartisan victory for newly elected US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, members of both the Democratic and Republican parties voted overwhelmingly in January to establish the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the US and the Chinese Communist Party.

It is unclear whether McCarthy will visit Taiwan, as he did earlier in August, drawing Beijing’s attention. Taiwan is a democratically controlled island that Beijing considers part of its territory.

More than half of Americans agree that the US should continue to have high-level politicians visit Taiwan despite damaging bilateral ties with China, Pew Research said in October.

“Over the past few years, a majority of people in the US have had an unfavorable view of China” amid concerns about China’s human rights policies, its partnership with Russia and other factors, according to Pew Research.

Michael Hirson, head of China research at 22V Research summed up the impact of the weekend’s events on US-China relations in a tweet:

“The balloon episode is both funny and worrisome because it’s the stage of US-China relations we’re in: both absurd and dangerous.”

– CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Christina Wilkie contributed to this report.