Tens of thousands have died. Millions have been turned into refugees. Almost one-fifth of the territory of Ukraine remains under Russian occupation. 2022 is the year of major war returning to Europe, at the center of two global conflicts of the 20th century. Ukraine has, remarkably, endured as a sovereign state, and a larger war has now been avoided. The goal for 2023 is to give Kiev all the help it needs to end the conflict – on its terms.
Vladimir Putin’s aggression has changed the world order. It has united a rich democracy in solidarity with Kyiv. Many are reconsidering their security. Finland and Sweden have given up their neutrality to seek NATO asylum. German history turning point reversing defense caution, pledging €100bn military modernization.
Japan is also overturning six decades of pacifism and increasing military spending – aimed at countering threats from China. The Ukraine conflict has focused attention on Taiwan as a potential flashpoint for a superpower clash, although Xi Jinping may be given pause by the Russian quagmire in Ukraine.
Despite the tragic cost, Ukraine has won a moral and tangible victory. It chased Russian troops from the gates of Kyiv, and led them from the Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Neither popular resolve nor state functioning was damaged by Moscow’s bombing. The conflict that, in fact, since 2014 has strengthened Ukrainian identity and sense of nationalism.
It is important for Kyiv to continue to rule on high, to force its soldiers to obey the rules of war and to avoid glorification, like Moscow and its propagandists, violence and massacres.
Putin’s ill-advised attack has achieved its goal. His supposedly strong army has been humiliated by the smaller, more decisive and tactically intelligent neighboring forces, aided by western science and weapons. the real enemy that is considered, NATO, is not reduced but revitalized.
Success on the battlefield of Ukraine does not mean that its allies can reduce their support. There are signs Moscow is planning a new attack. Even if that doesn’t happen, the dreaded stalemate could play into Putin’s hands. For him, the long-term destabilization of Ukraine is a win.
Nor is this the time to entertain the idea of a truce or negotiation. With Russia still in control of most of the four territories it “annexed” in October, plus Crimea and parts of the eastern Donbas seized in 2014, the situation is not right for Kyiv to come to the table.
Ukraine’s allies must do everything to ensure that they repel new attacks, and regain territory. The aim is to put Kyiv in a position where it feels it can negotiate, with the strongest hand. That means immediate budget support and financial aid for infrastructure repairs.
It also means more sophisticated defensive weapons, such as the Patriot missile defense system currently approved by Washington, and offensive weapons. Ukraine needs long-range missiles, helicopters and tanks. The U.S. and others have refused to provide the weapons for fear they could be used against targets in Russia, which could spark a NATO-Russia conflict, or in an effort to retake Crimea that Putin has hinted could spark a nuclear conflict.
It is natural for Washington to agree privately with Kyiv on the rules of engagement of the given weapons. But the aim should be to push Russia at least to the line of February 24 before. Returning the southern region would make Kyiv part of Crimea, giving it a strong negotiating position. Ukrainians in 2022 are an example to the world of strength and resilience. He gets double support in 2023.