Turkish presidential election headed for run-off vote

Turkey’s presidential election will be decided in a run-off, election officials said Friday, after incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan pulled ahead of a presidential challenge, but fell short of an outright victory that would extend his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade.

The May 28th runoff vote will determine whether the strategically located NATO country remains under the president’s grip or can embark on a more democratic path promised by his main rival, Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu.

When Erdogan has ruled for 20 years, opinion polls have suggested that the run could come to an end and that the cost-of-living crisis and criticism over the government’s response to the earthquake in February could redraw the electoral map.

However, Erdogan’s retreat has been less marked than expected – and with his alliance still holding on to parliament, he is now in a good position to win a second round.

Western countries and foreign investors were particularly interested in the results because of Erdogan’s unorthodox economic leadership and often mercurial but successful efforts to put Turkey in the middle of many major diplomatic negotiations. At the crossroads between East and West, with a coastline along the Black Sea and borders with Iran, Iraq and Syria, Turkey has been a key player in issues including the war in Syria, migration flows to Europe, Ukraine’s grain exports and NATO expansion. .

Preliminary results showed Erdogan won 49.51 percent, Kiliçdaroğlu got 44.88 percent and the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, received 5.17 percent, according to Ahmet Yener, head of the Supreme Election Council.

In the last presidential election in 2018, Erdogan won 52.6 percent of the vote in the first round, winning outright.

In power since 2003

While the chances were clear, Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey as prime minister or president since 2003, painted Sunday’s vote as a victory for himself and the country.

“If the results of the election have not been finalized it does not change the fact that the nation has voted for us,” Erdogan, 69, told supporters on Monday.

He said he would respect the nation’s decision.

Kiliçdaroğlu sounded hopeful for the final victory.

“We will definitely win the second round … and bring democracy,” said 74-year-old Kiliçdaroğlu, maintaining that Erdogan has lost the trust of a country that is now demanding change. Kiliçdaroğlu and his party have lost all previous presidential and parliamentary elections since taking the lead in 2010 but increased their votes this time.

Right-wing candidate Ogan has not said who he will support if the election goes to the second round. He is believed to have received support from nationalist voters who want change after two decades under Erdogan but are unsure of the ability of the six-party alliance led by Kiliçdaroğlu to govern.

Election results show that the alliance led by Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party looks set to retain its majority in the 600-seat parliament, even though the assembly has lost much of its power following a referendum that gave the president additional legislative powers. in 2017.

Erdogan’s AKP and its allies won 321 seats in the National Assembly, while the opposition won 213 and the remaining 66 went to the pro-Kurdish alliance, according to preliminary results.

Howard Eissenstat, associate professor of Middle Eastern history and politics at the University of St. Lawrence in New York, said the result would give Erdogan an advantage at the end of the run-off because voters do not want a “divided government.”

As in previous years, Erdogan led a highly divisive campaign. He described Kiliçdaroğlu, who has received support from the country’s pro-Kurdish party, as colluding with “terrorists” and supporting what he called “deviant” LGBTQ rights. In a bid to woo Voters hit hard by inflation, which increases wages and pensions, and subsidies for electricity and gas bills, while showing Turkey’s homegrown defense industry and infrastructure projects.

Kiliçdaroğlu, for his part, campaign promises to reverse crackdowns on free speech and other forms of democratic backsliding, as well as to fix the economy broken by high inflation and currency devaluation.

But when the results came in, it appeared that these elements did not sway voters as much as expected: Turkey’s conservative regions overwhelmingly voted for the ruling party, with the main opposition Kiliçdaroğlu winning most of the coastal provinces in the west and south. The pro-Kurdish Left Green Party, YSP, won the predominantly Kurdish province in the southeast.