Hundreds of Tunisians gather to celebrate Independence Day shouting slogans with banners and the Tunisian flag in their hands on Habib Bourguiba Street in Tunis, Tunisia on March 20, 2023. (Photo by Yassine Gaidi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
TThe president of the union Kais Saied alleged on February 21 that immigration from sub-Saharan African countries aims to change the demographic composition of Tunisia.
This comes as Tunisia faces rising import prices, a widening trade deficit, high debt servicing costs and a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund billed as the only way to deal with a balance of payments crisis. Beyond the global outrage provoked by his words, many argue that this is the only desired outcome of the new EU migration policy.
This is a new episode of the counter-revolution in the kingdom of Tunis, aimed at diminishing the democratic rights recently obtained and bringing back the national bourgeoisie destroyed by lack of political imagination. Migrants are an opportunity to reorganize Tunisian society according to Saied’s vision.
To fully understand what is happening in Tunis, a short detour to Bruxelle is necessary. The EU, which is responsible for harmonizing migration policies for its members, has been the target of European populist movements that complain about inefficiency in managing migration movements out of Africa. (For Ukrainians, this question is raised in different terms and vocabularies). Europe has now decided to partner with the North African regime outside its borders. This externalization agenda assigns the responsibility to protect asylum seekers, refugees and migrants to EU border countries such as Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco.
North Africa was once a transit point for sub-Saharan Africans heading to Europe. Now they are stuck in Tangier, Algiers or Tunis, landlocked by a newly funded and militarized coast guard that de facto works for the EU agenda. Neighboring Algeria, for example, is known to arrest migrants in cities and drive them to the desolate southern border without water, food or subsidies, forcing them to return home to the Sahara desert. The result of this policy is increasing African migrants on the streets of Tunisia and the strengthening of the Tunisian security apparatus. The migrants are not a problem for Saied; they represent an opportunity to finance and develop a more efficient security grip on Tunisians using EU money.
The rise of power that aims to fundamentally restructure Tunisian freedom cannot be understood without knowledge of the country’s new revolutionary period. In 2011, the conservative forces of president Ben Ali lost power. The revolutionary period had left many problems unresolved; inflation and unemployment persist because various assemblies are elected without being able to fix the economy. Despite efforts to implement a liberal democratic model, it was unable to meet the socio-economic demands of the Tunisian people during the December 2010 to January 2011 uprising.
Saied’s counter-revolutionary forces came up with simple and anti-democratic solutions for the people, promising faster justice and a better economy. Under Saeid’s rule, he reorganized and captured Tunisian power centers one by one. In March last year, the president dismissed the judges of the supreme council, whose duty was to ensure the independence of the judiciary, and replaced them with elected judges. A month after he dissolved parliament and accused opposition leaders of “plotting against national security”, he moved to rule by decree before rewriting the Constitution and effectively adopting it by 25% of the population in a referendum. A few weeks ago, he dissolved the municipal council months before he was elected. Many critics of the regime have been imprisoned, exiled or have been intimidated by the state police.
Allowing radical elements to pursue black African migrants helped the president introduce some new forms of militia violence that would eventually be used against Tunisians.
Tunisian civilians are no longer apathetic. Labor unions have mobilized workers in many cities, leading to the escalation of confrontations with Saied. Many have accused the president of being more efficient at busting unions and migrants than addressing the growing economic problems. The future will tell us that the austerity reforms advocated by the creditors will fix the economic situation. Otherwise, Tunisians may want to try to take the same migration path as their sub-Saharan counterparts or they will find themselves locked out and impoverished in an austerity-driven economy with solid EU reserve margins.
Thomas Lesaffre is a professor of politics and governance at the African Leadership Academy and a freelance journalist.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect official policy or position Mail & Guardians.