The new Nigerian president, whoever he is, has a lot of work to do. But two issues dominated the campaign season.
The first is the chronic insecurity that has increased over the last decade. Last year, more than 8,000 people were killed by armed groups such as Boko Haram – and the military, despite huge investments, is powerless to control the situation, while they are also associated with severe human rights violations.
Then there is the fragile, misfiring economy that is always on the verge of collapse. Inflation is above 21%, making basic goods unaffordable for many, while the decision to introduce new bank notes has created a cash shortage. Unemployment is at 33%.
On the issue, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the continuity candidate. He has become so entrenched in the political class that the stain can not help but remain. He was criticized for appearing to blame unarmed protesters for the 2020 Lekki Massacre, in which at least 12 people were shot dead by security forces. They protested against police brutality.
Kashim Shettima’s choice as a running mate is interesting. Some see it as a provocation, like Shettima, like Tinubu, a Muslim – political tradition encourages power to be shared between Christians and Muslims. Shettima is the governor of Borno State, a Boko Haram stronghold.
On the economic front, Tinubu pointed to his track record as governor of Lagos from 1999 to 2007 and claimed credit for the city’s economic boom. But that growth has come at a cost. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Lagos is the second worst city in the world to live in, after only Syria’s war-torn Damascus.
It is difficult to know what Atiku Abubakar plans to do about insecurity because he has just mentioned it in his manifesto, perhaps he is wary of alienating the main northern voters, who have worried that he is too liberal.
This raises concerns about whether he will be able to make tough decisions in the larger national interest. However, he has some form in this regard, as he opposes the introduction of Sharia law in the Muslim-majority region of the north.
The focus of Abubakar’s campaign is the economy. He is staunchly pro-business and says he will scrap fuel subsidies – even though petrol is more expensive for ordinary people – and privatize state oil companies. These savings will be allocated to small and medium enterprises, to create jobs.
Other ideas include renegotiating international debt agreements and raising diaspora guarantees to finance the booming tech sector. Most Nigerians will agree that this is a good idea only if they are the beneficiaries.
Perhaps the secret to Peter Obi’s unexpected popularity is that he offers so much. He has little experience in dealing with armed conflict but says he is ready to negotiate with those he can encourage to see things differently and will “deal” with those who don’t.
His supporters, the Obidients, as they call themselves, believe that his personal integrity will help him avoid corruption and blame the powers that be for hindering the current government’s response to insecurity.
As governor of Anambra, Obi built up the country’s coffers and had a good record in the private sector, where he made enough wealth to feel the need to keep some offshore. The theory is that, unlike his rivals, he does not want to get rich while in office and will be a reliable steward of Nigeria’s finances.
This article first appeared on Continenta pan-African weekly newspaper produced in partnership with Mail & Guardians. It is designed to be read and shared on WhatsApp. Download your free copy here.