Trump leaves NATO united on paper, uncertain in practice

Donald Trump whipsawed between love and hate as the NATO summit in Turkey rumbled to a somewhat ambiguous close on Wednesday with allies — including the U.S. president — standing firmly behind the Western military alliance’s all-for-one, one-for-all defence clause.

Trump ended the gathering of 32 nations with a rambling news conference where he said he felt “tremendous love” from the other leaders in the room.

It was a stark departure only hours after lambasting them over their defence spending and not backing the U.S. in its war with Iran.

There was no major public blow-up, as some leaders and observers feared.

There was, however, a sense of muted exasperation as leaders adjourned — expressing appreciation to their Turkish hosts and saying they’ll meet again, but not saying when.

That was a change from previous years that leaves the next host country, Albania, somewhat in limbo.

Trump careened between renewing threats over Greenland to publicly calling for a trade boycott of Spain to calling Iran’s leadership “scum.”

The bizarre moments didn’t end there. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered engraved pistols as a gift to each of his fellow leaders, including Prime Minister Mark Carney. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer mentioned the gift during his closing address.

A spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada said the gun was “being transferred to the possession of the RCMP for decommissioning” and that the ammunition remained in Turkey.

Despite Trump’s hard rhetoric, Carney said that he believed the president was in a good mood — both on Wednesday and at Tuesday’s leaders’ dinner.

That was the Trump that showed up at the podium following the two-hour closed-door session. 

“It was a great meeting, there was a lot of love in that room, a lot of unity,” Trump said soon after at a bilateral meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Earlier in the day, Trump was clearly in a mood, unleashing a litany of grievances — some old, some new, such as an extended tirade against Spain, which has refused to abide NATO spending targets and strongly opposes the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

“Spain is a terrible partner in NATO,” Trump said. “They don’t participate. They don’t pay. I don’t want anything to do with Spain. Cut off all trade with Spain, please, including visits, OK?”

At one point, on Tuesday, he said the only reason he showed up was because of his friendship with the Turkish president.

The ending statement of the summit reaffirmed the allies’ commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which states an attack on one is an attack on all.

After Trump previously cast doubt about whether the United States would honour the alliance’s bedrock commitment, he endorsed the measure, something European leaders saw as a victory. 

Timing of next summit unclear

Even still, the summit ended with no concrete plans for the next one and many in European and diplomatic circles suggested that other leaders were tired of the haranguing and it may be time to return to the more sporadic calendar of getting together once every few years.

 “NATO normally does not have summits every year,” said Max Bergmann, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“It would not surprise me if this is frankly the last NATO summit of the Trump administration, of Trump’s presidency. There is talk from the U.S. side of trying to cancel the summit that was tentatively planed for next year in Albania. Frankly, I think that makes a lot of sense. And I think a lot of European leaders would jump at that.”

There were published reports on Wednesday that suggested the idea of postponing the next summit was actively discussed.

Prior to the summit, the U.S. sowed uncertainty, saying it wasn’t going to commit as many forces toward the NATO force model in the event of war than it had in the past. It is also reviewing what troops are in the field and the amount of money Washington contributes to keeping the alliance running.

The notion of less U.S. involvement in Europe was difficult for some countries to grasp.

“NATO is structured around the United States,” said Bergmann. “It’s fundamentally structured around the United States and has been for the last 77 years and that’s how we have wanted it.”

Bergmann said there are real political considerations that need to be addressed whenever European nations work together for their own collective security, absent the United States.

“It is just a really important political question, one that Europeans are currently reckoning with.”